Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #75
39%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #41
61%
Expected Total Games: 26.0
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #75 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #33 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #34 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #29 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-05-05

Tomas Machac

  • Current #41 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #28 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #32 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 45.4
ELO Rating: 1693.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1702.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.9
Clay: 25.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.5

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 41.3
ELO Rating: 1732.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1803.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.5
Clay: 19.4
Grass: 16.0
Serve Rating: 94.0
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Tomas Machac
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
1
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the opening round at Rome on clay, Tomas Machac is favored to upset Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Round of 128 at this Masters 1000 event. The model projects Machac to win with a 61.13% probability versus 38.87% for Tsitsipas, and expects about 26.03 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tsitsipas arrives ranked 75 with an Elo of 1693.69 and a form index of 45.39. He shows strong serving (mean serve index 96.13) and an excellent return profile (mean return index 89.47); his surface strength index on clay is modest at 25.37. He has no cumulative fatigue in this tournament and recent clay-court outings include a three-set loss to Casper Ruud in Madrid after two earlier wins in that event, suggesting he can string wins together but can be stretched in long matches. Machac is the higher-ranked player at 41 and carries a slightly superior Elo of 1732.22, with a form index of 41.28. His serve (mean serve index 94.02) and return (85.93) are both solid; his clay surface strength index is lower at 19.40. Like Tsitsipas he is fresh for this match. Over his last three matches he fell to Cameron Norrie in a three-set match in Madrid, beat Francisco Comesana in three sets, and lost to Andrey Rublev in Barcelona — a recent pattern of competitive showings but mixed results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.0 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - Tomas Machac) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: the model gives a predicted aces total of about 15.34, while the double faults prediction sits at 6.42. Clay’s slower, high-bouncing surface tends to suppress outright aces and can increase expected double faults over long points; these expected double faults reflect that dynamic. Neither player has a markedly superior serve rating that would dramatically shift the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stefanos Tsitsipas's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (32.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Machac’s higher ranking and Elo give him the edge in the projection, and the model favors his ability to grind out enough points to prevail. The key factor to watch will be return games and how both players handle extended rallies on clay — break conversion and resistance under pressure should decide this one.

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