Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 16

Tommy Paul vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Tommy Paul

Rank: #12
45%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #8
55%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 55.8
ELO Rating: 2657.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1779.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 223.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 23.6
Grass: 26.1
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 88.4

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 58.0
ELO Rating: 3078.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1791.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 234.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.8
Clay: 30.1
Grass: 31.0
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul

  • Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-1) clay Rome 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) clay Rome 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-2) clay Madrid 68 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) clay Madrid 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (2-0) clay Madrid 125 min

Alex de Minaur

  • Last Match: vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) clay Rome 117 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Luca Nardi (2-0) clay Rome 117 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) clay Madrid 83 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (2-0) clay Madrid 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) clay Madrid 75 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 of the Masters 1000 tournament held in Rome, Italy, Tommy Paul is set to face Alex de Minaur on clay. The predicted winner is Alex de Minaur, with a win probability of 55.14%, while Tommy Paul has a probability of 44.86%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 22 games played.

Match Analysis

Both players are ranked high, with Paul at 12 and de Minaur at 8, indicating a closely matched contest. In terms of form, de Minaur holds a slight edge with a form index of 57.99 compared to Paul's 55.77. The Elo ratings further emphasize this, showing de Minaur at 3078.23 versus Paul's 2657.74, suggesting a significant disparity in their competitive history and performance level. Fatigue levels are similar, with Paul at 223 minutes and de Minaur at 234 minutes, indicating both players are dealing with a similar cumulative workload. Notably, de Minaur possesses a higher surface strength index at 30.14, compared to Paul’s 23.59, showcasing his better adaptation to clay conditions. Examining their recent performances, Tommy Paul has won two out of his last three matches, with a notable victory against Roberto Bautista Agut, while he lost to Jack Draper. His recent match against Tomas Machac was a hard-fought 2-1 victory, indicating resilience but also significant court time. On the other hand, Alex de Minaur has been in strong form, winning all of his last three matches, including a convincing performance against Hugo Dellien. His consistent victories, particularly without dropping a set in his last two matches, highlight his current momentum.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's superior recent form, combined with his higher surface strength index, gives him a crucial edge going into this match. A key factor to observe during the game will be how each player manages their serve; de Minaur's marginally lower mean serve index could be pivotal if Paul is able to capitalize on it.