Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi Prediction

Tommy Paul

Rank: #14
64%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #23
36%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Why the Model Favors Tommy Paul

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +6.0 Tommy Paul
Recent record by level +4.4 Tommy Paul
Recent form +3.2 Tommy Paul
Serve & return game +2.5 Tommy Paul
Age +1.8 Luciano Darderi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Tommy Paul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #14 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #18 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #20 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-10-27

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #23 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #22 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #25 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 54.6
ELO Rating: 1894.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1889.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.1
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.4

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 43.0
ELO Rating: 1739.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1779.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.3
Clay: 32.5
Grass: 15.5
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Luciano Darderi
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
1
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tommy Paul is favoured, with the forecast giving him 64% to win and Luciano Darderi 36%. The expected total is 24.9 games in the Round of 16 in Vienna.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is on hard courts: Paul has been the more effective player on this surface, and his stronger return gives him a better chance of pressuring Darderi’s service games. Paul is also ranked 14th, compared with Darderi at 23rd. Paul’s recent results offer a slight advantage. He beat Andrey Rublev in straight sets in Vienna, while Darderi’s straight-set win over Matteo Arnaldi followed hard-court losses to James Duckworth and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Both come in off a win, but Paul’s recent record is stronger.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Luciano Darderi) +1.2 Most likely spread: +1 (Tommy Paul wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Paul is projected to hit 7.3 aces and 2.1 double faults, with Darderi at 6.9 aces and 2.4 double faults. Their serving profiles are fairly close, which fits the similar ace totals, while Paul’s slight projected advantage in control leaves him with fewer expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.8 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Tommy Paul 7.2 + Luciano Darderi 6.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tommy Paul 2.1 + Luciano Darderi 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 7.2 aces

Luciano Darderi

Expected 6.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 2.1 double faults

Luciano Darderi

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tommy Paul's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s serve is close to Paul’s in the projection, so a strong serving day could keep the Italian in contention and make Paul’s return advantage less decisive.

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