Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 16

Vit Kopriva vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #66
47%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #42
53%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Rafael Jodar

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Ranking Trends

Vit Kopriva

  • Current #66 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #101 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #94 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #79 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #95 2025-04-21

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #42 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #150 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #210 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 68.8
ELO Rating: 1690.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1717.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 223.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.9
Clay: 43.5
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 65.7
Return Rating: 76.8

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 89.9
ELO Rating: 1859.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1886.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 353.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.4
Clay: 45.0
Grass: 39.7
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 89.2

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) clay Madrid 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) clay Madrid 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper De Jong (2-1) clay Madrid 151 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (1-2) clay Barcelona 112 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) clay Barcelona 69 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
0
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Madrid’s round of 16 on clay at a masters_1000 event, Rafael Jodar is narrowly favored over Vit Kopriva. The model gives Jodar a 52.87% chance to progress versus 47.13% for Kopriva, with an expected total of about 23.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper this is a tight matchup. Jodar arrives as the higher-ranked player (42 vs 66) with a substantially higher Elo (1859 vs 1691) and a standout form index (89.94 compared with Kopriva’s 68.81). However, Jodar’s cumulative fatigue (353 minutes on court) is noticeably greater than Kopriva’s 223 minutes, which could temper his edge. Both players show similar surface strength on clay (about 44 for each), suggesting neither has a pronounced clay-court advantage. The contrast in serving and returning profiles is stark: Jodar’s mean serve index (96.69) far outstrips Kopriva’s (65.75), and his mean return index (89.24) also exceeds Kopriva’s (76.75). That dual advantage in serve and return underpins Jodar’s slight favoritism. Form-wise, both men are unbeaten through three rounds in Madrid. Kopriva’s wins have come in relatively shorter matches (56–93 minutes), while Jodar has navigated longer, more grinding affairs (75–151 minutes), which explains his high fatigue number despite strong results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Vit Kopriva - Rafael Jodar) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match stands at roughly 13.6 total, while the expected double faults are about 6.06. On slow clay, predicted aces will be suppressed compared with faster surfaces, but Jodar’s significantly higher serve rating should still lift the predicted aces count. The expected double faults reflect both the surface and accumulated match minutes—the expected double faults number may rise if fatigue becomes a factor.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.6 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jodar’s superior Elo, form and markedly stronger serve/return metrics give him a slender edge, but Kopriva’s fresher legs and solid recent wins make this far from a foregone conclusion. The key factor to watch will be whether Jodar’s serve remains potent late in rallies or whether fatigue opens opportunities for Kopriva on return.

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