Shanghai Shanghai Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil Majchrzak Prediction

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #57
36%
VS

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #70
64%
Expected Total Games: 25.3
Predicted Winner: Kamil Majchrzak

Why the Model Favors Kamil Majchrzak

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +5.7 Kamil Majchrzak
Serve & return game +3.5 Kamil Majchrzak
Recent record by level +2.3 Kamil Majchrzak
Age +1.7 Kamil Majchrzak
Surface fit +1.4 Yannick Hanfmann

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Kamil Majchrzak. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #57 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #56 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #55 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #102 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #150 2025-09-29

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Current #70 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #45 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #60 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #59 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #66 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 31.2
ELO Rating: 1640.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1726.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.6
Clay: 22.9
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 88.6

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 33.1
ELO Rating: 1618.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1676.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.0
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 20.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Yannick Hanfmann
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Kamil Majchrzak
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yannick Hanfmann
vs
0
Kamil Majchrzak
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Kamil Majchrzak is favoured in Shanghai, with a 64% chance of beating Yannick Hanfmann, whose win probability is 36%. The forecast expects 25.3 games in this Round of 128 match.

Match Analysis

Recent form is the strongest separator. Hanfmann has lost his last three matches, including a hard-court defeat to Tomas Machac in Beijing. Majchrzak has also lost two of his last three, but his Tokyo win over Lorenzo Sonego gives him a recent result to build on, and he took a set from Arthur Fils in his latest match. The forecast also gives Majchrzak a smaller advantage in the serve-and-return game. Hanfmann’s higher ranking and slight hard-court edge make the matchup less one-sided, but neither is a large separation. The main case for Majchrzak is his more encouraging recent stretch, rather than a clear gap in their overall level.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.3 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yannick Hanfmann - Kamil Majchrzak) -1.0 Most likely spread: -1 (Kamil Majchrzak wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hanfmann is projected to hit 8.7 aces and 2.5 double faults, while Majchrzak is projected for 6.7 aces and 2.1 double faults. Hanfmann’s modest serve advantage helps explain the ace difference, with the hard court’s consistent bounce offering both players a steady serving surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.9 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Yannick Hanfmann 8.7 + Kamil Majchrzak 6.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Yannick Hanfmann 2.5 + Kamil Majchrzak 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Yannick Hanfmann

Expected 8.7 aces

Kamil Majchrzak

Expected 6.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Yannick Hanfmann

Expected 2.5 double faults

Kamil Majchrzak

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Yannick Hanfmann's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (37.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hanfmann’s slight hard-court advantage is the most specific route to an upset. If it helps him put more pressure on Majchrzak’s service games, the favourite’s recent-form advantage may not be enough.

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