Shanghai 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Oct 5 to Oct 19
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Oct 5 | Oct 6 | Oct 7 | Oct 9 | Oct 10 | Oct 11 | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 | Oct 18 | Oct 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 100.0% |
| Alexander Zverev | 17.3% | 17.8% | 17.4% | 17.7% | 18.5% | 16.3% | 21.3% | 22.5% | 45.5% | 60.7% | 57.2% | 52.5% | out |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 51.4% | 51.6% | 51.6% | 53.2% | 51.4% | 56.8% | 56.7% | 54.0% | out | - | - | - | - |
| Daniil Medvedev | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 23.2% | 18.7% | out |
| Rafael Jodar | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 15.8% | out |
| Ben Shelton | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.8% | out | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tommy Paul | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | out | - | - |
| Alex De Minaur | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 8.1% | out | - | - | - |
| Arthur Gea | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 6.7% | out | - | - | - |
| Arthur Fils | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | out | - | - | - | - |
| Frances Tiafoe | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | out | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jakub Mensik | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | out | - | - | - | - |
How the race unfolded
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won Shanghai 2026. On Oct 5, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Carlos Alcaraz at 51.4%. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina never led the open forecast: the front changed hands only when the title was decided. The sharpest fall: Carlos Alcaraz, from 54.0% to out of the tournament on Oct 15.
Last open forecast (Oct 18)
- Alexander Zverev (1) 52.5%
- Daniil Medvedev (5) 18.7%
- Rafael Jodar (12) 15.8%
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (25) 12.9%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/shanghai-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)