Bundesliga 2025-2026: Dortmund vs M'gladbach Prediction
Dortmund
Home Team
71%
VS
M'gladbach
Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5:
53%
Under 2.5:
47%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 51 | 11 | 40 | 38 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | Dortmund | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 26 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 26 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 24 |
| 8 | Union Berlin | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 18 |
| 9 | Freiburg | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Koln | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | M'gladbach | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 16 |
| 13 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 15 |
| 14 | Hamburg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 15 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 11 |
| 18 | Mainz | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 7 |
Recent Trends
Dortmund
- Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
M'gladbach
- Last Match: vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Dortmund
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.65
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.21
# Clean Sheets:
1
M'gladbach
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.05
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.15
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Dortmund and M'gladbach is expected to tilt in favor of the home side, Dortmund, with a substantial 71.0% probability of winning. The prediction also suggests a high likelihood of witnessing over 2.5 goals scored during the match. Currently, Dortmund holds the 3rd position in the Bundesliga standings, while M'gladbach finds themselves in 11th place.
Match Analysis
In their recent outings, Dortmund has shown resilience and consistency. They managed to secure victories against Hoffenheim and Leverkusen, both of which were credible performances, especially the 2-1 away win against Leverkusen. Their consistency was slightly marred by a draw against Freiburg. Despite this, Dortmund has maintained an average of 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 goals conceded per match in their last five games, emphasizing their solid defensive structure.
On the other hand, M'gladbach's recent form has been a mixed bag. After a home defeat against Wolfsburg, they bounced back with a win against Mainz, albeit with a narrow 1-0 margin. A goalless draw against RB Leipzig highlighted their defensive capabilities, as they have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches. M'gladbach has averaged 2.0 goals per game in recent performances, suggesting they possess the attacking threat to challenge Dortmund.
Advanced metrics further illustrate Dortmund's slightly superior position, with their expected goals tally closely aligning with their actual scoring rate. M'gladbach's numbers also reflect a capable attacking unit, but their defensive stability might be tested by Dortmund's quality upfront.
Final Prediction
Dortmund's edge in this encounter stems from their consistent form and a robust defensive record. Coupled with home advantage, they appear well-positioned to secure the win. A key factor to watch will be how Dortmund's defense handles M'gladbach's attacking prowess, which could be crucial in determining the match's outcome.