Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs Dortmund Prediction
Freiburg
Home Team
36%
VS
Dortmund
Away Team
38%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
56%
No Goal:
44%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 9 | 40 | 37 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | Dortmund | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 28 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 23 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 23 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 21 |
| 8 | FC Koln | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | Freiburg | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | M'gladbach | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 | Union Berlin | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 15 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 11 |
| 17 | St Pauli | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 8 |
| 18 | Mainz | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 6 |
Recent Trends
Freiburg
- Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 6)
- 4th Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 0)
Dortmund
- Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Freiburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.85
# Clean Sheets:
2
Dortmund
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.16
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Freiburg and Dortmund is expected to be a tightly contested affair, with Dortmund having a slight edge in the probability of winning at 38.0% compared to Freiburg's 36.0%. The odds also suggest a 26.0% chance of the match ending in a draw. With the predicted result leaning towards a low-scoring encounter, an under 2.5 goals outcome is anticipated. In the current Bundesliga standings, Dortmund holds a stronger position in 3rd place, while Freiburg is positioned at 9th.
Match Analysis
Freiburg's recent performances have been a mixed bag, with a notable 4-0 victory over Mainz at home, sandwiched between losses to Heidenheim and Bayern Munich. This inconsistency in form is reflected in their average goals scored and conceded, with 2.4 and 1.0 respectively over the last five games. Despite this, Freiburg has managed to keep two clean sheets, indicating their potential to hold firm defensively.
Dortmund, on the other hand, comes into this match with a more stable recent form, securing victories against Hoffenheim and Leverkusen, and a high-scoring draw with Stuttgart. They have shown resilience in defense, conceding only 0.8 goals on average in their last five matches, while scoring 1.4 goals on average. The advanced metrics suggest Dortmund creates fewer expected goals (1.27) but maintains a solid defensive structure.
Final Prediction
Dortmund's slight edge in this matchup stems from their overall stronger league position and more consistent recent performances. Their defensive stability and ability to eke out victories against tougher opponents might give them the upper hand. A key factor to watch during the game will be Dortmund's ability to control possession and limit Freiburg's attacking opportunities, particularly given Freiburg's potential to score when on form.