Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hamburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction
Hamburg
Home Team
58%
VS
Werder Bremen
Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
54%
No Goal:
46%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 9 | 35 | 34 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Dortmund | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 25 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 23 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | FC Koln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | M'gladbach | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 10 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 8 |
| 17 | St Pauli | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 | Mainz | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
Recent Trends
Hamburg
- Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 4)
- 5th Last Match: vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
Werder Bremen
- Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Hamburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.29
# Clean Sheets:
0
Werder Bremen
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.21
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.66
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
Hamburg is tipped to win their upcoming match against Werder Bremen with a probability of 58.0%. The game is expected to be low-scoring, with a predicted outcome of under 2.5 goals and a 49.0% probability for this result. Currently, Hamburg sits at 13th position in the Bundesliga standings, while Werder Bremen is slightly ahead in 9th place.
Match Analysis
In their recent performances, Hamburg has shown resilience, securing a win against Stuttgart at home and holding Dortmund to a draw, also at home. However, an away loss to Augsburg exposed some vulnerabilities. On average, Hamburg has been more prolific on the attack, scoring 1.8 goals per game in their last five matches, while maintaining a solid defense by conceding just 0.8 goals on average. Their expected goals metrics suggest that they have been creating quality chances but have struggled to keep clean sheets.
Werder Bremen, on the other hand, managed a home victory against Wolfsburg but experienced a setback against RB Leipzig away. With a draw against FC Koln, their recent form has been mixed. Despite scoring an average of 1.4 goals in their last five outings, their defense has been leaky, conceding 1.8 goals per game. Their expected goals suggest that they are not creating as many opportunities as they might need to secure wins, and defensively, they have been porous with only one clean sheet in recent matches.
Final Prediction
Hamburg's edge over Werder Bremen in this fixture stems from their recent strong performances at home and their slightly better goal-scoring form. Watch for Hamburg's ability to capitalize on their home advantage and Werder Bremen’s defensive vulnerabilities, which could prove decisive in this encounter.