Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Hoffenheim

Home Team
89%
VS

Wolfsburg

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 66%
Under 2.5: 34%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 28.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 21 3 1 92 24 68 66
2 Dortmund 25 16 7 2 53 26 27 55
3 Hoffenheim 25 15 4 6 53 33 20 49
4 Stuttgart 25 14 5 6 50 34 16 47
5 RB Leipzig 25 14 5 6 48 34 14 47
6 Leverkusen 25 13 5 7 48 32 16 44
7 Ein Frankfurt 25 9 8 8 48 49 -1 35
8 Freiburg 25 9 7 9 37 42 -5 34
9 Augsburg 25 9 4 12 31 43 -12 31
10 Hamburg 25 7 8 10 28 36 -8 29
11 Union Berlin 25 7 7 11 30 42 -12 28
12 M'gladbach 25 6 7 12 28 43 -15 25
13 Werder Bremen 25 6 7 12 29 45 -16 25
14 FC Koln 25 6 6 13 34 43 -9 24
15 Mainz 25 5 9 11 29 41 -12 24
16 St Pauli 25 6 6 13 23 40 -17 24
17 Wolfsburg 25 5 5 15 34 55 -21 20
18 Heidenheim 25 3 5 17 24 57 -33 14

Recent Trends

Hoffenheim W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 5)

Wolfsburg L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hoffenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 1

Wolfsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.02
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.96
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Hoffenheim are strong favourites here, with an 89.0% probability of a home win against a struggling Wolfsburg side that sits 17th and deep in relegation trouble. Third in the Bundesliga on 49 points, Hoffenheim are well placed in the Champions League race and expected to underline that status in this matchup. The model also leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 66.0% and both teams favoured to score (59.0% probability).

Match Analysis

Hoffenheim’s last three games underline why they are in the top three. A 4-2 away win at bottom club Heidenheim showed their attacking power, while the 2-2 draw at FC Köln was another high-scoring display. The only blip was the 0-1 home loss to St Pauli, where they still dominated territory and chances with 20 shots and a 10-3 corner count. Over the last five matches, they are averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, backed by strong xG numbers (2.496 for, 1.004 against), suggesting their recent form is no fluke. Wolfsburg arrive in Sinsheim in a dire run. They have lost three on the spin: 2-3 at home to Augsburg, 0-4 at Stuttgart and 1-2 at home to Hamburg. Defensively they have been wide open, conceding 3, 4 and 2 goals in those games, and their last five-match averages are alarming: 0.8 goals scored and 3.6 conceded. The underlying data offers little comfort either, with just 1.018 xG for and a hefty 2.958 xG against per game, pointing to a side constantly under pressure and second best in both boxes.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 66.0% looks well supported by both teams’ recent patterns. Two of Hoffenheim’s last three league matches went over 2.5 goals (4-2 vs Heidenheim, 2-2 vs Köln), with only the 0-1 defeat to St Pauli landing under 2.5. Wolfsburg have also seen goals: all three of their recent games finished over 2.5 (2-3, 0-4, 1-2). With Hoffenheim averaging 2.4 scored and Wolfsburg conceding 3.6 per game over the last five, plus xG figures suggesting each side is involved in chance-heavy contests, an open, high-scoring encounter is the likeliest scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.52 total corners, in line with what both sides have been producing. Hoffenheim’s last three have seen corner counts of 3-4, 10-3 and 10-3, highlighting a team that routinely pins opponents back, especially away from home and in matches they control. Wolfsburg’s recent returns (7-3 vs Hamburg, 3-7 at Stuttgart, 4-10 vs Augsburg) show that in games where they are under pressure they concede a lot of corners. Given Hoffenheim’s front-foot style and Wolfsburg’s tendency to defend deep, the predicted corners total around the 10–11 mark looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is set at 28.03, which matches the recent shot volumes for both teams. Hoffenheim have taken 16, 20 and 18 shots in their last three games, consistently creating enough efforts to match their high xG of 2.496 per match. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, have allowed 10, 24 and 15 shots in their last three, while managing 14, 10 and 10 themselves. This shots prediction suggests Hoffenheim will again rack up attempts, with Wolfsburg contributing enough efforts – in line with their 1.018 xG average – to keep the game lively.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s superior league position, recent form and underlying numbers all point in the same direction: they have a clear edge over a Wolfsburg side leaking goals and confidence. With Hoffenheim’s attack in rhythm and Wolfsburg’s defence under siege in recent weeks, the home side looks well placed to take another step towards Champions League qualification. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Hoffenheim can impose their attacking game; if they start fast, Wolfsburg may struggle to stay in touch.

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