Bundesliga 2025-2026: Leverkusen vs Dortmund Prediction
Leverkusen
Home Team
53%
VS
Dortmund
Away Team
25%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5:
55%
Under 2.5:
45%
Goal:
58%
No Goal:
42%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 8 | 33 | 31 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Leverkusen | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 23 |
| 4 | Dortmund | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Stuttgart | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Ein Frankfurt | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 22 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Union Berlin | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Koln | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Freiburg | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | M'gladbach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Augsburg | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Hamburg | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | St Pauli | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Mainz | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 5 |
Recent Trends
Leverkusen
- Last Match: vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 6 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 3)
Dortmund
- Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Leverkusen
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.78
# Clean Sheets:
2
Dortmund
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.01
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Leverkusen and Dortmund is predicted to see the home team, Leverkusen, coming out on top with a 53.0% probability of winning. This anticipated result is supported by their strong league standing, as they are currently positioned 3rd in the Bundesliga, just one spot above Dortmund, who sits in 4th place. The game is also expected to be high-scoring, with a 55.0% probability of over 2.5 goals, making it an exciting fixture for fans who enjoy attacking football.
Match Analysis
Leverkusen's recent performances have been a mix of results, with two convincing wins against Wolfsburg and Heidenheim, where they scored a total of 9 goals and conceded just 1. However, they faced a setback with a heavy 3-0 loss to the league leaders Bayern Munich. Their ability to bounce back from defeats and maintain an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last five matches showcases their offensive prowess. With advanced metrics indicating a high expected goals score of 2.798, Leverkusen's attacking threat is undeniable.
On the other hand, Dortmund has shown resilience in their recent outings, securing a win against Augsburg and drawing with Stuttgart and Hamburg. Despite these mixed results, Dortmund has maintained a decent average of 1.4 goals scored per game and has demonstrated defensive solidity with two clean sheets in their last five matches. Their expected goals scored metric of 1.608 reflects a modest offensive capability compared to Leverkusen, but their solid defense could be crucial in this matchup.
Final Prediction
Leverkusen's prolific attack and superior recent form give them a clear edge in this encounter. Their ability to score freely, combined with a strong league position, makes them the favorites to secure a victory. One key factor to watch will be how Dortmund's defense holds up against Leverkusen's high-scoring forwards, as this could ultimately decide the outcome of the game.