Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Leverkusen Prediction
Mainz
Home Team
19%
VS
Leverkusen
Away Team
65%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5:
53%
Under 2.5:
47%
Goal:
56%
No Goal:
44%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 22 | 18 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | FC Koln | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Hamburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | St Pauli | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Union Berlin | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Mainz | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | M'gladbach | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
Recent Trends
Mainz
- Last Match: vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 4 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
Leverkusen
- Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Mainz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.87
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.64
# Clean Sheets:
0
Leverkusen
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.67
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.57
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Mainz and Leverkusen is heavily tilted in favor of Leverkusen, with a 65.0% probability of an away victory. Mainz, currently in a precarious 16th position in the Bundesliga standings, has only a 19.0% chance of securing a win. The likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals stands at 53.0%, suggesting a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Match Analysis
Mainz's recent performances have been a mixed bag, with their last three games yielding one win and two losses. Notably, they secured a 4-1 victory against Augsburg, but faced heavy defeats to Hamburg and Dortmund, conceding six goals without reply. Their advanced metrics indicate a struggle, with an average of 0.0 goals scored in the last five games and a worrying 1.333 goals conceded per game. Mainz's inability to keep a clean sheet in recent matches further highlights their defensive vulnerabilities.
In contrast, Leverkusen is riding a wave of positive form, having won two and drawn one of their last three matches. Victories against Union Berlin and St Pauli, coupled with a draw against M'gladbach, show their offensive and defensive capabilities. Leverkusen has been prolific in front of goal, with an average of 2.5 goals scored in their last five outings. Despite conceding an average of 2.0 goals, their expected goals metrics suggest a solid attacking threat, averaging 1.665 goals per game, which could be decisive against a struggling Mainz defense.
Final Prediction
Leverkusen's recent form and superior attacking statistics give them a clear edge over Mainz in this fixture. Their ability to consistently find the back of the net, coupled with Mainz's defensive frailties, could play a crucial role in determining the outcome. A key factor to watch will be Leverkusen's attacking prowess, as they aim to capitalize on Mainz's defensive struggles and secure valuable points away from home.