Bundesliga 2024-2025: RB Leipzig vs Dortmund Prediction - 15 Mar 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

RB Leipzig

Home Team
38%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
37%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 19 4 2 74 23 51 61
2 Leverkusen 25 15 8 2 55 30 25 53
3 Mainz 25 13 5 7 42 26 16 44
4 Ein Frankfurt 25 12 6 7 51 39 12 42
5 Freiburg 25 12 5 8 34 36 -2 41
6 RB Leipzig 25 10 9 6 39 33 6 39
7 Wolfsburg 25 10 8 7 49 39 10 38
8 Stuttgart 25 10 7 8 44 39 5 37
9 M'gladbach 25 11 4 10 39 38 1 37
10 Dortmund 25 10 5 10 45 39 6 35
11 Augsburg 25 9 8 8 28 35 -7 35
12 Werder Bremen 25 9 6 10 38 49 -11 33
13 Hoffenheim 25 6 8 11 32 47 -15 26
14 Union Berlin 25 7 5 13 22 38 -16 26
15 St Pauli 25 6 4 15 19 30 -11 22
16 Bochum 25 5 5 15 26 49 -23 20
17 Holstein Kiel 25 4 5 16 37 61 -24 17
18 Heidenheim 25 4 4 17 28 51 -23 16

Recent Trends

RB Leipzig D L D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)

Dortmund L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 6 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bochum (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.42
# Clean Sheets: 3

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.87
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.64
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between RB Leipzig and Dortmund is expected to be a closely contested affair, with RB Leipzig slightly favored to win with a 38.0% probability compared to Dortmund's 37.0%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 25.0%. Sitting at 6th in the Bundesliga with 39 points, RB Leipzig edges out 10th-placed Dortmund, who have accumulated 35 points. The game is predicted to see over 2.5 goals, with a 59.0% probability suggesting an open and attacking encounter.

Match Analysis

RB Leipzig's recent performances have been somewhat inconsistent. They are coming off a goalless draw against Freiburg, a narrow home defeat to Mainz, and a 2-2 draw with bottom-placed Heidenheim. Their defensive solidity has been notable with three clean sheets in the last five matches, yet they have also shown vulnerability by conceding goals. Offensively, Leipzig has averaged 2.2 goals per game in their recent outings, with an expected goals metric of 1.738, indicating efficiency in front of goal. On the other hand, Dortmund has experienced a mixed bag of results. They suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat against Augsburg but responded with a commanding 6-0 victory over Union Berlin and a solid 2-0 win away at St Pauli. Despite these results, their average goals scored in the last five matches is 1.2, with an expected goals figure of 1.874, suggesting they have been underperforming in finishing. Defensively, they have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game, which poses a concern against Leipzig's attacking prowess.

Final Prediction

RB Leipzig's slight edge in prediction is due to their higher league position and more consistent goal-scoring form. Their ability to maintain clean sheets could be a deciding factor against a Dortmund side that has struggled defensively. A key factor to watch will be whether Leipzig can capitalize on Dortmund's defensive frailties and maintain their attacking momentum to secure a home victory.

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