Bundesliga 2025-2026: RB Leipzig vs Leverkusen Prediction

RB Leipzig

Home Team
43%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
32%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 14 12 2 0 51 11 40 38
2 RB Leipzig 14 9 2 3 29 16 13 29
3 Dortmund 14 8 5 1 24 12 12 29
4 Leverkusen 14 8 2 4 30 19 11 26
5 Hoffenheim 14 8 2 4 29 20 9 26
6 Stuttgart 14 8 1 5 25 22 3 25
7 Ein Frankfurt 14 7 3 4 29 29 0 24
8 Union Berlin 14 5 3 6 19 23 -4 18
9 Freiburg 14 4 5 5 21 23 -2 17
10 FC Koln 14 4 4 6 22 23 -1 16
11 M'gladbach 14 4 4 6 18 22 -4 16
12 Werder Bremen 14 4 4 6 18 28 -10 16
13 Wolfsburg 14 4 3 7 20 24 -4 15
14 Hamburg 14 4 3 7 15 24 -9 15
15 Augsburg 14 4 1 9 17 28 -11 13
16 St Pauli 14 3 2 9 13 26 -13 11
17 Heidenheim 14 3 2 9 13 30 -17 11
18 Mainz 14 1 4 9 13 26 -13 7

Recent Trends

RB Leipzig ❌ ✅ ⚪ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 6 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)

Leverkusen ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 6 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.55
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 3

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.79
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Leverkusen is predicted to tilt in favor of the home team, RB Leipzig, with a 43.0% probability of victory. The odds also suggest a high likelihood of a match featuring over 2.5 goals, with a 58.0% chance. Currently, RB Leipzig sits in the 2nd position, while Leverkusen is not far behind in 4th place, indicating a tightly contested matchup between two top-tier teams.

Match Analysis

RB Leipzig enters this fixture with a mixed bag of results from their recent games. They experienced a heavy defeat against Union Berlin away (1-3), a commanding victory over Ein Frankfurt at home (6-0), and a goalless draw with M'gladbach away. This suggests that while Leipzig can be prolific in front of goal, they have also shown vulnerability, particularly when playing away. Their advanced metrics over the last five matches underscore their offensive strength, with an impressive average of 3.2 goals scored per game and maintaining three clean sheets, indicating a solid defense. Leverkusen, on the other hand, has had a more challenging run, with a recent win against FC Koln (2-0) being overshadowed by losses to Augsburg (0-2) and Dortmund (1-2). Their performance metrics reveal an average of 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game in their last five outings. Despite this, they have managed to keep two clean sheets, suggesting potential resilience in defense. However, their slightly higher expected goals conceded rate could be a concern when facing a potent attacking side like Leipzig.

Final Prediction

RB Leipzig appears to have the upper hand in this encounter, primarily due to their strong attacking prowess and solid defensive performances in recent matches. A key factor to watch will be whether Leipzig's offense can exploit Leverkusen's defensive frailties, particularly given the latter's recent inconsistency. Football fans can expect a dynamic and potentially high-scoring game, with Leipzig favored to capitalize on their home advantage.