Bundesliga 2025-2026: St Pauli vs Hamburg Prediction - 23 Jan 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

St Pauli

Home Team
32%
VS

Hamburg

Away Team
47%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 18 16 2 0 71 14 57 50
2 Dortmund 18 11 6 1 35 17 18 39
3 Hoffenheim 17 10 3 4 35 21 14 33
4 Stuttgart 18 10 3 5 33 26 7 33
5 RB Leipzig 17 10 2 5 33 24 9 32
6 Leverkusen 17 9 2 6 34 25 9 29
7 Ein Frankfurt 18 7 6 5 38 39 -1 27
8 Freiburg 18 6 6 6 29 31 -2 24
9 Union Berlin 18 6 6 6 24 27 -3 24
10 FC Koln 18 5 5 8 27 30 -3 20
11 M'gladbach 18 5 5 8 23 29 -6 20
12 Wolfsburg 18 5 4 9 27 38 -11 19
13 Werder Bremen 17 4 6 7 21 34 -13 18
14 Hamburg 17 4 5 8 17 27 -10 17
15 Augsburg 18 4 4 10 20 35 -15 16
16 Heidenheim 18 3 4 11 17 39 -22 13
17 Mainz 18 2 6 10 18 31 -13 12
18 St Pauli 17 3 3 11 16 31 -15 12

Recent Trends

St Pauli L L D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)

Hamburg D L D L W

  • Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

xG (avg) 0.81
xGA (avg) 1.80
Clean Sheets 1

Hamburg

xG (avg) 1.26
xGA (avg) 2.42
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between St Pauli and Hamburg sees the away team, Hamburg, as the favorite with a 47.0% probability of winning. St Pauli, currently at the bottom of the Bundesliga standings, has a 32.0% chance of victory. The likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals is 52.0%, suggesting an exciting encounter with plenty of attacking action. Hamburg sits in 14th place, just above the relegation zone, while St Pauli is in 18th, making this a crucial match for both teams.

Match Analysis

In recent performances, St Pauli has struggled to find form, suffering two defeats and securing a goalless draw in their last three matches. They faced a tough challenge against Dortmund in a 3-2 loss, followed by a 2-1 defeat to Wolfsburg, before earning a point with a 0-0 draw against Mainz. Their average goals scored over the last five games is just 0.6, while they concede an average of 2.2 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Hamburg, on the other hand, has shown slightly better resilience, managing two draws and a loss in their last three outings. They held both M'gladbach and Ein Frankfurt to draws and suffered a narrow 2-1 defeat against Freiburg. Hamburg's average goals scored in the last five matches sit at 0.8, with a defensive record of conceding 2.6 goals per game. Despite conceding more goals on average, their expected goals scored (1.26) suggests they have the potential to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Final Prediction

Hamburg's marginally better form and higher expected goals metrics give them an edge over St Pauli. As both teams struggle defensively, watch for goal-scoring opportunities to play a crucial role. Hamburg's ability to convert expected goals into actual goals will be a key factor, potentially leading them to victory in this fiercely contested matchup.

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