Bundesliga 2025-2026: Stuttgart vs Mainz Prediction
Stuttgart
Home Team
82%
VS
Mainz
Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5:
56%
Under 2.5:
44%
Goal:
56%
No Goal:
44%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 21 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Dortmund | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Koln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Freiburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Mainz | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 |
Recent Trends
Stuttgart
- Last Match: vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 3)
Mainz
- Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 4 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Stuttgart
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.99
# Clean Sheets:
3
Mainz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.66
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.05
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
Stuttgart is heavily favored to win their upcoming match against Mainz with a commanding 82.0% probability. The game is expected to have over 2.5 goals, with a 56.0% likelihood of this occurring. Currently, Stuttgart is sitting comfortably in 3rd place in the Bundesliga standings, while Mainz is struggling at 16th, teetering near the relegation zone.
Match Analysis
Stuttgart has shown impressive form in their recent fixtures, securing victories in their last three games. Their recent performances include a dominant 3-0 win against Wolfsburg away, a narrow 1-0 victory over Heidenheim at home, and a 2-1 triumph against FC Koln away. This streak has been underpinned by strong defensive performances, as evidenced by their three clean sheets in the last five matches, conceding no goals on average during this period.
In contrast, Mainz is in a difficult phase, having suffered three consecutive losses. Their recent results include a high-scoring 4-3 defeat to Leverkusen at home, a heavy 4-0 loss away to Hamburg, and a 2-0 defeat by Dortmund at home. Despite averaging 1.67 goals per game over the last five outings, their defense has been porous, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match and failing to secure any clean sheets.
The advanced metrics highlight Stuttgart's solid defensive record, with a lower expected goals conceded (0.99) compared to Mainz's 1.05. Offensively, both teams have similar expected goals scored, Stuttgart with 1.61 and Mainz at 1.65, indicating potential for goals from both sides.
Final Prediction
Stuttgart's recent form and defensive solidity give them a clear edge over Mainz in this matchup. Their ability to maintain clean sheets and capitalize on scoring opportunities makes them the likely victors. A key factor to watch will be whether Mainz can tighten up their defense to withstand Stuttgart's attacking threats and possibly turn around their current losing streak.