Bundesliga 2026-2027: Union Berlin vs Dortmund Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Union Berlin

Home Team
25%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
52%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 27.9
Expected Spread: -0.6

Why the Model Leans Dortmund

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Union Berlin
Chance creation (xG data) +10.0 Dortmund
Defense +6.3 Dortmund
Attack +5.8 Dortmund
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.9 Dortmund

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 68% for Dortmund. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Union Berlin defense +3.9 Over
Union Berlin attack & chance creation +3.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Dortmund attack & chance creation +2.1 Over
Form & results +1.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Freiburg 5 4 1 0 14 4 10 13
2 Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11 4 7 13
3 Bayern Munich 5 3 2 0 16 4 12 11
4 Leverkusen 5 3 1 1 14 8 6 10
5 RB Leipzig 5 3 0 2 15 5 10 9
6 Augsburg 5 2 2 1 13 8 5 8
7 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10 10 0 8
8 Mainz 5 2 1 2 13 10 3 7
9 Elversberg 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
10 FC Koln 5 2 1 2 8 10 -2 7
11 Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 8 9 -1 6
12 Hamburg 5 2 0 3 5 15 -10 6
13 Schalke 04 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
14 Ein Frankfurt 5 1 2 2 9 16 -7 5
15 Paderborn 5 1 1 3 3 7 -4 4
16 Union Berlin 5 1 1 3 5 17 -12 4
17 Hoffenheim 5 1 0 4 9 13 -4 3
18 M'gladbach 5 0 0 5 7 18 -11 0

Recent Trends

Union Berlin W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Elversberg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 7)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Schalke 04 (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 3)

Dortmund D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Paderborn (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 1.81
xGA (avg) 1.87
Clean Sheets 1

Dortmund

xG (avg) 2.06
xGA (avg) 1.42
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are the likeliest winners at 52%, with a draw at 23% and a Union Berlin win at 25%. The goals lean is over 2.5, with a 62% probability.

Match Analysis

Dortmund’s advantage comes from creating more and defending more reliably. Their away figures are 2.1 expected goals created and 1.4 conceded, while Union Berlin’s home expected-goals figures are 1.8 created and 1.9 conceded. Union Berlin have home advantage, but their defensive record leaves less room for error against a side that has scored 11 goals in five league matches. Union Berlin’s latest result, a 1-0 win over Elversberg, followed a 0-7 defeat at Bayern Munich and a 1-3 loss to Schalke 04. That sharp contrast shows the potential for improvement, but not yet a settled defensive pattern. Dortmund’s latest was a 2-2 draw with Werder Bremen, following a 1-0 win at Stuttgart and a 3-0 win over Paderborn. They remain unbeaten after five league games.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 62%. Union Berlin’s defensive record and the teams’ attacking and chance-creation figures point toward goals, although recent results provide some counterweight.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.3 corners. Recent games offer support for an active count, including 9 corners for Dortmund against Werder Bremen and 7 for Union Berlin against Elversberg.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 28 shots in total. Both sides have recently produced high shot counts, with Union Berlin recording 19 against Elversberg and Dortmund 21 against Werder Bremen.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Union Berlin wins by X goals. Negative = Dortmund wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Union Berlin vs Dortmund with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Union Berlin vs Dortmund
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.6 of a goal in Dortmund’s favour. That fits the visitors’ stronger win probability, despite Union Berlin’s home advantage.

Final Prediction

Union Berlin’s best route to changing the forecast is to reproduce the defensive discipline of their 1-0 win over Elversberg. If they instead give Dortmund the space they did at Bayern, the visitors’ greater attacking output could decide it.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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