Spezia
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #20 of 20 in Serie B 35 pts · 8W–11D–19L · GD -16
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Spezia?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Spezia's results were 2.5% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Spezia | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 45.5% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #17 | 1467 | 1469 | 1415 |
| 2024-25 | Serie B | #4 | 1528 | 1666 | 1560 |
| 2023-24 | Serie B | #7 | 1552 | 1552 | 1535 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #19 | 1518 | 1518 | 1375 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #17 | 1502 | 1502 | 1397 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #13 | 1466 | 1500 | 1438 |
| 2019-20 | Serie B | #4 | 1538 | 1622 | 1562 |
| 2018-19 | Serie B | #10 | 1441 | 1566 | 1502 |
| 2017-18 | Serie B | #16 | 1480 | 1548 | 1440 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | at Pescara | L Spezia 33.4% · draw 28.4% | D ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Venezia | L Spezia 21.8% · draw 24.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Catanzaro | L Spezia 28.4% · draw 29.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Sudtirol | L Spezia 34.5% · draw 30.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Mantova | W Spezia 35.1% · draw 32.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Carrarese | L Spezia 22.1% · draw 28.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Juve Stabia | L Spezia 29.2% · draw 31.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Empoli | W Spezia 37.8% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Modena | L Spezia 13.8% · draw 22.8% | L ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Monza | L Spezia 26.0% · draw 27.0% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/spezia">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/spezia">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>