Sudtirol
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #16 of 20 in Serie B 41 pts · 8W–17D–13L · GD -10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Sudtirol?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Sudtirol's results were 14.0% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Sudtirol | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 30.3% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #19 | 1502 | 1561 | 1400 |
| 2024-25 | Serie B | #7 | 1506 | 1542 | 1537 |
| 2023-24 | Serie B | #12 | 1550 | 1589 | 1487 |
| 2022-23 | Serie B | #7 | 1487 | 1636 | 1565 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | vs Juve Stabia | W Sudtirol 35.9% · draw 32.5% | D ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Sampdoria | L Sudtirol 27.2% · draw 28.9% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Mantova | W Sudtirol 35.6% · draw 31.9% | L ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Spezia | W Sudtirol 34.7% · draw 30.7% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Modena | L Sudtirol 30.6% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Cesena | W Sudtirol 35.0% · draw 31.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Frosinone | L Sudtirol 29.1% · draw 30.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | at Avellino | W Sudtirol 35.9% · draw 31.0% | L ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Pescara | W Sudtirol 61.3% · draw 22.6% | D ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Virtus Entella | W Sudtirol 54.1% · draw 26.2% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/sudtirol">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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