Premier League 2026-2027: Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Chelsea

Home Team
65%
VS

Tottenham

Away Team
16%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 26.3
Expected Spread: +1.0

Why the Model Leans Chelsea

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Chelsea
Attack +7.1 Chelsea
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.9 Chelsea
Chance creation (xG data) +3.6 Chelsea
Defense +3.4 Chelsea

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 81% for Chelsea. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Chelsea attack & chance creation +5.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Chelsea defense +2.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 7 7 0 0 19 7 12 21
2 Arsenal 7 6 0 1 11 5 6 18
3 Brighton 7 5 1 1 23 5 18 16
4 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 17 13 4 13
5 Liverpool 7 3 3 1 9 8 1 12
6 Brentford 7 2 4 1 13 8 5 10
7 Leeds 7 2 4 1 9 6 3 10
8 Everton 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
9 Hull 7 2 3 2 8 7 1 9
10 Ipswich 7 3 0 4 11 15 -4 9
11 Newcastle 7 2 2 3 10 14 -4 8
12 Aston Villa 7 2 2 3 7 11 -4 8
13 Man United 7 1 4 2 10 10 0 7
14 Crystal Palace 7 2 1 4 9 17 -8 7
15 Bournemouth 7 1 3 3 9 13 -4 6
16 Tottenham 7 1 3 3 6 10 -4 6
17 Coventry 7 2 0 5 6 14 -8 6
18 Fulham 7 1 2 4 7 10 -3 5
19 Nott'm Forest 7 1 2 4 5 9 -4 5
20 Sunderland 7 1 1 5 6 14 -8 4

Recent Trends

Chelsea W W L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bournemouth (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Hull (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)

Tottenham W D L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Coventry (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chelsea

xG (avg) 2.14
xGA (avg) 1.76
Clean Sheets 1

Tottenham

xG (avg) 1.42
xGA (avg) 1.91
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are favoured to win, with a 65% chance, compared with 16% for Tottenham and 20% for a draw. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 54%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with Chelsea also better placed to create and finish chances. They have averaged 3.7 goals at home, while Tottenham’s away scoring average is just 0.3, despite 1.4 expected goals. That gap suggests Spurs have not converted their away chances well, but it also leaves room for their finishing to improve. Chelsea have put two wins between themselves and a 0-3 loss to Brentford, beating Bournemouth 5-1 and Everton 2-0. Tottenham’s latest result was a 3-1 win over Coventry, following a 1-1 draw with Man United and a 2-3 defeat to Aston Villa. Chelsea’s recent scoring gives them the stronger platform, though their home defence has conceded an average of 2.0 goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is a narrow lean at 54%. Chelsea’s attack and chance creation provide the strongest push towards a higher total, although their home defending is a reason for caution.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Corners in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.3 corners. Chelsea won 12 corners against Brentford, while Tottenham’s match with Aston Villa featured 12 in total, suggesting both sides can contribute to the count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 26 shots in total. Chelsea’s latest match produced 24 shots and Tottenham’s latest produced 28, supporting the expectation of a busy game.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Chelsea wins by X goals. Negative = Tottenham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Chelsea vs Tottenham with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Chelsea vs Tottenham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about one goal in Chelsea’s favour, consistent with their strong home outlook and Tottenham’s low away scoring return.

Final Prediction

Tottenham’s clearest route to upsetting the forecast is to turn their away chances into goals. Chelsea’s home defence has allowed openings, but Spurs must be more clinical than their recent away scoring average suggests.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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