La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Celta Prediction
Alaves
Home Team
60%
VS
Celta
Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5:
47%
Under 2.5:
53%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 31 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 15 | 17 | 28 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Ath Madrid | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 25 |
| 5 | Betis | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | Espanol | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 | Betis | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Getafe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Alaves | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Elche | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Vallecano | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | Celta | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Sociedad | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Mallorca | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Girona | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 10 |
| 19 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 9 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 |
Recent Trends
Alaves
- Last Match: vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
Celta
- Last Match: vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Alaves
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.77
# Clean Sheets:
1
Celta
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.30
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.91
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Alaves and Celta is predicted to lean in favor of the home side, Alaves, with a 60.0% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Celta has a 19.0% chance of securing a victory. A draw is slightly more likely than a Celta win, standing at a 20.0% probability. The prediction suggests a low-scoring affair, with the chances of under 2.5 goals being higher at 53.0%. In the league standings, Alaves sits in 10th position, while Celta is trailing behind at 13th place.
Match Analysis
In their last three encounters, Alaves has experienced a mixed bag of results. They secured a home victory against Espanyol with a score of 2-1 but suffered defeats to Girona and Vallecano, each by a narrow 1-0 margin away from home. This inconsistency reveals their struggle to maintain momentum, particularly in away fixtures. Alaves' recent games indicate a slight edge in scoring compared to conceding, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 allowed per game in the last five matches.
On the other hand, Celta comes into this fixture with a more promising recent form, having won two of their last three games. They earned hard-fought victories against Levante and Osasuna, both away from home, which highlights their potential threat on the road. However, their 4-2 loss at home to Barcelona underscores defensive vulnerabilities. Celta's offensive stats reflect a slightly higher scoring average than Alaves, with 1.6 goals per game in their last five, but their defense remains porous, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game.
Final Prediction
Alaves holds the edge primarily due to their home advantage and a slightly more reliable defensive record. With Celta struggling to keep clean sheets, Alaves' ability to capitalize on defensive lapses could prove decisive. A key factor to observe during the match will be Alaves' ability to convert their expected goals into actual goals, leveraging their home support to secure a vital win.