La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Valencia Prediction
Alaves
Home Team
69%
VS
Valencia
Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5:
43%
Under 2.5:
57%
Goal:
48%
No Goal:
52%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Betis | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Ath Madrid | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Elche | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Betis | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Espanol | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Getafe | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Levante | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Valencia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Celta | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Oviedo | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Girona | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 6 |
| 19 | Sociedad | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 | Mallorca | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
Recent Trends
Alaves
- Last Match: vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 0)
Valencia
- Last Match: vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 6)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Alaves
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.58
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.81
# Clean Sheets:
1
Valencia
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.22
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Alaves and Valencia is tipped in favor of Alaves with a substantial 69.0% probability of a home victory. The likelihood of an away win for Valencia stands at a mere 14.0%, while the chance of a draw is 16.0%. Expectations are leaning towards a low-scoring affair, with a 43.0% probability of the match yielding over 2.5 goals. Currently, Alaves sits in the 10th position on the La Liga table, while Valencia finds itself struggling at 15th.
Match Analysis
Alaves enters this match with a mixed bag of recent performances. The team secured a convincing 3-1 home victory against Elche, but faced a narrow 0-1 defeat away to Mallorca. Their resilience was on display in a 1-1 draw against Getafe, also away from home. Over the last five matches, Alaves has been averaging 1.75 goals per game while conceding 1.25. Their expected goals figures suggest an offensive capability with a score of 1.585, matched by a defensively solid expected goals conceded rate of 0.8125.
In contrast, Valencia's recent form is concerning. They have not registered a win in their last three matches, suffering back-to-back 1-2 losses against Girona and Oviedo. A 2-2 draw against Espanol showcased their offensive potential, but also highlighted defensive vulnerabilities. Valencia's average goals per match in the last five games is a lowly 0.75, and they have conceded a worrying 2.75 goals on average. Their expected goals scored are slightly better at 0.9875, yet their expected goals conceded stand at a high 2.22, pointing to defensive frailties.
Final Prediction
Alaves appears to have the upper hand heading into this fixture, bolstered by their superior position in the league and more consistent recent performances. Their ability to score more frequently and defend more effectively than Valencia gives them a distinct advantage. Football fans should keep an eye on Alaves' defensive organization, which could be pivotal in stifling Valencia's attack and securing the predicted victory.