La Liga 2026-2027: Ath Bilbao vs Alaves Prediction - 19 Sep 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread
Ath Bilbao
Home Team
42%
VS
Alaves
Away Team
30%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5:
57%
Under 2.5:
43%
Goal:
60%
No Goal:
40%
Expected Corners:
10.0
Expected Shots:
23.6
Expected Spread:
+0.4
Why the Model Leans Ath Bilbao
The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.
When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Ath Bilbao. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
Why the Model Sees Over 2.5
The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.
These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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Set it upCurrent Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 18 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Betis | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Ath Madrid | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | La Coruna | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Espanol | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Betis | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Santander | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Vallecano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Levante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Getafe | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Celta | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Malaga | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
| 20 | Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Ath Bilbao
- Last Match: vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 3)
Alaves
- Last Match: vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Santander (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Osasuna (Goals: 5 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Ath Bilbao
xG (avg)
2.15
xGA (avg)
0.85
Clean Sheets
2
Alaves
xG (avg)
2.25
xGA (avg)
0.97
Clean Sheets
1
Key Prediction Insights
Athletic Bilbao are marginal favourites at San Mamés, with a 42.0% chance of victory against Alavés, who are given a 30.0% shot, and a 28.0% probability of a draw. The model expects a home win and an over 2.5 goals outcome at 57.0% probability in a clash between mid‑table contenders, with Alavés currently up in 6th place on 10 points and Athletic sitting outside the top six in this table snapshot.
Match Analysis
The model’s edge for Athletic comes mainly from home advantage, which adds 12.9 percentage points toward the hosts, with a smaller bump from team strength. Recent form in Bilbao backs that up. Ernesto Valverde’s side have taken seven points from their last three matches, including a 3‑0 home win over Atlético Madrid and a 2‑0 success away at Celta. Even the 1‑1 home draw with Elche was dominant in territory, with a 19 to 3 shot count and 7 to 1 on corners.
Alavés are rated slightly better on chance creation, which the model credits with 4.1 percentage points in their favour, and they also edge “results and dominance” by 1.1 points. Their last three games have been very mixed. A 5‑2 thrashing of Osasuna at home showed their attacking ceiling, but that was followed by back‑to‑back defeats, 1‑2 at Santander and 0‑1 at home to struggling Valencia, despite outshooting both opponents (16 to 11 and 15 to 10).
The advanced metrics suggest a tight contest in open play. Athletic are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across their last five, with strong chance creation at 2.15 expected goals per match and only 0.85 xG allowed, plus two clean sheets. Alavés are actually creating slightly more on paper at 2.25 xG per game, but finishing is lagging, with just 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded on average. That combination of Bilbao’s home comfort and Alavés’ wastefulness tips the balance toward the hosts.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction
Recent Goals Trends
Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5
Ath Bilbao
Alaves
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 57.0%, driven mainly by Athletic Bilbao’s attack and chance creation, which push the model 4.7 points toward the Over, helped by the league’s relatively high scoring profile. Two of Athletic’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (1‑1 vs Elche, 2‑0 at Celta) with only the 3‑0 against Atlético going over, but their xG average of 2.15 for and 0.85 against hints at more goals than recent scorelines show.
Alavés lean more clearly toward open games. Two of their last three have gone over 2.5 (5‑2 vs Osasuna, 1‑2 at Santander), with only the 0‑1 loss to Valencia ending under 2.5. Their 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match across five games, combined with 2.25 xG created and 0.98 xG conceded, support an over 2.5 prediction, especially with the model also giving a 60.0% probability that both sides contribute on the scoresheet.
Corners Prediction
Recent Corners Trends
Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.
Ath Bilbao
Alaves
Corners Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.0 total corners, in line with the model’s expected figure. Athletic’s recent numbers are strong: 7‑1, 3‑8 and 7‑4 on corners, which shows that their home games in particular tend to generate a lot of attacking phases and set plays. Alavés have been respectable too, with corner counts of 2‑5, 6‑4 and 4‑1, suggesting a team that can push opponents back but can also be penned in when chasing a result.
With both sides creating decent shot volumes and using width, a total near 10 predicted corners fits the pattern of two proactive teams that attack the box frequently rather than relying solely on long shots.
Shots Prediction
Recent Shots Trends
Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.
Ath Bilbao
Alaves
Shots Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.63 expected shots in the match, which aligns with the recent data. Athletic have racked up 19, 11 and 17 shots across their last three, while allowing 3, 15 and 8. That points to a side capable of both sustained pressure at home and more balanced exchanges against stronger rivals.
Alavés have posted 15, 16 and 12 shots in their last three, while conceding 10, 11 and 7. Combined with both teams’ xG profiles, the expected shots total just under 24 looks realistic for a game where both are likely to reach double figures in attempts.
Goal Spread Prediction
Goal Spread Probability Distribution
Positive = Ath Bilbao wins by X goals. Negative = Alaves wins by X goals.
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is an expected spread of +0.39 in favour of Athletic Bilbao, meaning the home side are projected to edge this by around a single goal. Recent scorelines support that slim margin. Athletic are +3 on goal difference in their last three (6 scored, 1 conceded), while Alavés are exactly level on goals over the same spell (6 scored, 5 conceded).
This narrow expected spread fits the 42.0% home win probability versus 30.0% for the visitors, and reflects Bilbao’s stronger defensive metrics against an Alavés attack that creates plenty but has not consistently converted.
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
Final Prediction
Athletic Bilbao’s edge comes primarily from home advantage at San Mamés, backed by superior recent defensive numbers and efficient finishing in their last three outings. Alavés arrive with encouraging chance creation but less clinical end product, which the model believes will be costly.
A key factor to watch will be how often Athletic can turn their xG dominance into shots inside the box. If Alavés again create at the level their xG suggests, this could be an open contest that lives up to the over 2.5 goals projection.
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