La Liga 2025-2026: Betis vs Celta Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Betis

Home Team
47%
VS

Celta

Away Team
27%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 27 22 1 4 72 26 46 67
2 Real Madrid 27 20 3 4 56 23 33 63
3 Ath Madrid 27 16 6 5 46 25 21 54
4 Villarreal 27 17 3 7 50 32 18 54
5 Betis 27 11 10 6 42 34 8 43
6 Celta 27 10 10 7 37 30 7 40
7 Espanol 27 10 7 10 34 40 -6 37
8 Sociedad 27 9 8 10 40 41 -1 35
9 Getafe 27 10 5 12 23 29 -6 35
10 Betis 27 10 5 12 30 37 -7 35
11 Osasuna 27 9 7 11 32 32 0 34
12 Valencia 27 8 8 11 30 41 -11 32
13 Vallecano 27 7 10 10 27 33 -6 31
14 Sevilla 27 8 7 12 35 42 -7 31
15 Girona 27 7 10 10 28 43 -15 31
16 Alaves 27 7 6 14 25 37 -12 27
17 Elche 27 5 11 11 35 41 -6 26
18 Mallorca 27 6 7 14 31 44 -13 25
19 Levante 27 5 7 15 29 45 -16 22
20 Oviedo 27 3 9 15 17 44 -27 18

Recent Trends

Betis L D D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)

Celta L W W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Betis

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.12
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.26
# Clean Sheets: 1

Celta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.13
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Betis are slight favourites at home, with a 47.0% chance of victory against Celta’s 27.0%, and the draw at 26.0%. The model points to a Betis win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, with only a 45.0% probability of the game going over 2.5. In the table, Betis sit 5th on 43 points while Celta are just behind in 6th on 40, adding extra weight to this duel in the European race.

Match Analysis

Betis come into this with three league games without a win: defeat at Getafe (0-2) followed by home draws against Sevilla (2-2) and Vallecano (1-1). Those results show some defensive looseness, but the underlying trend is still positive going forward: over the last five matches Betis average 2.2 goals scored and 2.12 expected goals, with only 0.8 conceded on average and 1.256 xG against. That suggests they usually control games better than the recent scorelines alone might indicate. Celta’s form line is steadier: narrow losses and wins, all tight contests. They beat Girona 2-1 away and Mallorca 2-0 at home before a competitive 1-2 home loss to Real Madrid. In their last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with 1.496 xG for and 1.128 xG against – a profile of a balanced side, dangerous enough in attack but generally solid. With both teams close in the standings and both tending to keep games relatively controlled, the small edge leans towards Betis’ higher attacking output, especially at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
The call here is under 2.5 with a 55.0% implied edge against the 45.0% chance of over 2.5. Two of Betis’ last three matches went under 2.5 goals (0-2 vs Getafe, 1-1 vs Vallecano), with only the 2-2 Sevilla draw going over. For Celta, two of their last three also finished under (2-0 vs Mallorca, 2-1 vs Girona and 1-2 vs Madrid both hit exactly three goals, so just one over 2.5 in that span). Given Betis’ 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded on average and Celta’s more modest 1.2 for and 1.2 against, alongside xG figures that point to controlled rather than chaotic games, a tight under 2.5 outcome is a logical over 2.5 prediction call to resist.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Betis
Corners in last 5 matches
Celta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly average contest, with 9.32 predicted corners in total. Betis’ last three have produced 11 corners at Getafe (8-3), 7 against Sevilla (4-3) and 8 versus Vallecano (3-5), numbers that fit a mid-range pattern. Celta’s recent games brought 7 corners vs Madrid (1-6), 16 at Girona (6-10) and 9 against Mallorca (7-2). Both sides can push high at times, but they are not relentless crossing machines, which supports a figure around the 9–10 mark for predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Betis
Shots in last 5 matches
Celta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots tally is 24.8, again suggesting a balanced game rather than a shooting gallery. Betis have seen 23 shots at Getafe (14-9), 23 against Sevilla (9-14) and 26 versus Vallecano (14-12), generally hovering in the low-to-mid 20s. Celta’s last three produced 22 shots vs Madrid (8-14), 22 at Girona (7-15) and a dominant 21 against Mallorca (20-1). That recent volume, coupled with both teams’ xG profiles, backs a shots prediction just under 25 expected shots, with Betis likely edging the attacking numbers at home.

Final Prediction

Betis’ home advantage, stronger recent attacking averages and slightly higher xG output give them the narrow edge in a clash with clear European implications. Celta’s compact, balanced profile should keep it close, but Betis’ capacity to create more consistent chances may tilt the details in their favour. The key factor to watch will be which side controls territory and shot volume early; whoever dictates that rhythm is likely to decide a tight, low-scoring encounter.

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