La Liga 2025-2026: Betis vs Oviedo Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Betis

Home Team
63%
VS

Oviedo

Away Team
18%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: +0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 33 28 1 4 87 30 57 85
2 Real Madrid 33 23 5 5 68 31 37 74
3 Villarreal 33 20 5 8 59 38 21 65
4 Ath Madrid 33 18 6 9 56 37 19 60
5 Betis 33 12 14 7 49 41 8 50
6 Getafe 33 13 5 15 28 34 -6 44
7 Celta 33 11 11 11 45 43 2 44
8 Sociedad 33 11 10 12 52 52 0 43
9 Osasuna 33 11 9 13 39 40 -1 42
10 Betis 33 12 5 16 36 48 -12 41
11 Vallecano 33 9 12 12 33 41 -8 39
12 Valencia 33 10 9 14 37 48 -11 39
13 Espanol 33 10 9 14 37 49 -12 39
14 Elche 33 9 11 13 44 50 -6 38
15 Girona 33 9 11 13 36 50 -14 38
16 Alaves 33 9 9 15 38 49 -11 36
17 Mallorca 33 9 8 16 41 51 -10 35
18 Sevilla 33 9 7 17 40 55 -15 34
19 Levante 33 8 9 16 37 50 -13 33
20 Oviedo 33 6 10 17 26 51 -25 28

Recent Trends

Betis D W D D L

  • Last Match: D vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)

Oviedo L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Betis

xG (avg) 1.70
xGA (avg) 0.77
Clean Sheets 1

Oviedo

xG (avg) 1.42
xGA (avg) 2.19
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Betis are clear favourites at home, with a 63.0% chance of victory against an Oviedo side rooted to 20th and fighting to avoid relegation, while Betis sit 5th and pushing for a Champions League spot. The model points to a home win and leans towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals, with a 53.0% chance the game produces at least three. The draw is rated at 19.0%, and an Oviedo upset just 18.0%.

Match Analysis

Betis come into this on a solid three‑match unbeaten run: a 1-1 draw with Real Madrid at home, a 3-2 win away at Girona, and another 1-1 draw at Osasuna. They’ve looked balanced rather than spectacular, scoring in all three and showing they can create consistently – their last five games show 1.704 expected goals per match but only 1.0 actual goals scored, suggesting they’re fashioning good chances but not fully capitalising. Defensively, they’ve been tight, conceding exactly 1.0 goal per game over the last five, with xG against at just 0.77, a profile of a side generally in control. Oviedo’s recent form is far more volatile. In their last three, they’ve beaten Celta 3-0 away, drawn 1-1 with Villarreal, and lost 2-1 at home to Elche. That run hints at punch going forward – 1.8 goals per game in their last five, backed by 1.424 xG – but also real vulnerability at the back, with 2.2 conceded per match and 2.192 expected goals against. Sitting bottom on 28 points with a -25 goal difference, they are open, risky and forced to chase results, which plays into Betis’s hands at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 53.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Betis’s last three (3-2 at Girona, 1-1 vs Madrid, 1-1 at Osasuna) have produced exactly or just below the line, with one clear over. Oviedo have seen two of their last three finish over 2.5 (3-0 at Celta, 2-1 vs Elche, 1-1 vs Villarreal). With Betis averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, but generating 1.704 xG for and facing only 0.77, and Oviedo combining 1.8 scored with 2.2 conceded, the data points slightly more towards goals than a cagey affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Betis
Corners in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.49, roughly in line with what both sides have produced lately. Betis’s last three have seen corner counts of 7-6, 1-3 and 3-6, showing that their games can swing from low to relatively high depending on the rhythm, but generally involve both teams having a go. Oviedo’s recent matches have finished 6-1, 7-0 and 1-4 on corners, underlining that they do push high and force set‑piece situations when chasing games. With both needing a result for different reasons, the predicted corners around the 9–10 mark feels consistent with two sides willing to attack.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Betis
Shots in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction expects 25.4 total efforts, which matches the open nature of recent matches for both clubs. Betis have been involved in shot counts of 19-12, 7-9 and 8-12, all above 15 total, often nudging or surpassing the mid‑20s. Oviedo’s last three have produced 12-4, 16-7 and 8-9 in shots, again pushing totals into the 20+ range. Given Betis’s 1.704 xG for and Oviedo’s 1.424 xG for in their last five, those expected shots look like the base for a lively attacking contest rather than a stalemate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Betis wins by X goals. Negative = Oviedo wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Betis vs Oviedo with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Betis vs Oviedo
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction gives an expected spread of +0.84 in favour of Betis, indicating they are projected to win by close to a single goal. Betis’s last three have a combined goal difference of +1 (5 scored, 4 conceded), consistent with a side edging tight games. Oviedo’s is level over the same stretch (5 scored, 5 conceded), but their season-long -25 goal difference and recent 2.2 goals conceded per game underline why the model leans clearly towards the home side. The strong 63.0% home-win probability aligns neatly with a narrow but fairly decisive expected spread.

Final Prediction

Betis have the edge thanks to their stronger defensive record, superior xG profile, and the advantage of playing at home while sitting 5th in the table. Oviedo’s attacking threat and urgent need for points should make them dangerous in moments but also leave spaces Betis can exploit. The key factor to watch will be whether Betis can finally convert their consistent chance creation into a more clinical performance on the scoresheet.

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