La Liga 2025-2026: Celta vs Alaves Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Celta

Home Team
57%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
22%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 23.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 28 23 1 4 77 28 49 70
2 Real Madrid 28 21 3 4 60 24 36 66
3 Ath Madrid 28 17 6 5 47 25 22 57
4 Villarreal 28 17 4 7 51 33 18 55
5 Betis 28 11 11 6 43 35 8 44
6 Celta 28 10 11 7 38 31 7 41
7 Sociedad 28 10 8 10 43 42 1 38
8 Espanol 28 10 7 11 35 42 -7 37
9 Getafe 28 10 5 13 23 30 -7 35
10 Betis 28 10 5 13 30 40 -10 35
11 Osasuna 28 9 7 12 33 35 -2 34
12 Girona 28 8 10 10 31 43 -12 34
13 Vallecano 28 7 11 10 28 34 -6 32
14 Valencia 28 8 8 12 30 42 -12 32
15 Sevilla 28 8 7 13 37 47 -10 31
16 Mallorca 28 7 7 14 33 45 -12 28
17 Alaves 28 7 7 14 26 38 -12 28
18 Elche 28 5 11 12 36 45 -9 26
19 Levante 28 5 8 15 30 46 -16 23
20 Oviedo 28 4 9 15 18 44 -26 21

Recent Trends

Celta D L W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)

Alaves D L L D D

  • Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Celta

xG (avg) 2.08
xGA (avg) 0.95
Clean Sheets 1

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.37
xGA (avg) 1.72
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Celta are favoured to take all three points at Balaídos, with a 57.0% chance of a home win against an Alaves side given just a 22.0% probability, the same as the draw. Sixth in La Liga on 41 points, Celta are pushing for the Champions League spots, while 17th-placed Alaves sit on 28 points and are still looking nervously over their shoulders at the relegation zone. The model also leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (44.0% chance of over, so a slight edge to the under), suggesting a tight, controlled contest rather than a goal-fest.

Match Analysis

Celta come into this looking solid and hard to beat. In their last three outings they’ve drawn at Betis (1-1), narrowly lost at home to Real Madrid (1-2) and edged Girona away (2-1). That’s four points from nine against good opposition, and the performances behind the results are even more encouraging: over their last five matches they’ve averaged 2.2 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers of 2.076 xG for and just 0.954 xG against. Even with only one clean sheet in that span, they’ve generally controlled games and created better chances than they’ve allowed. Alaves, by contrast, are struggling to turn effort into points. They’ve taken just one point from their last three matches – a 1-1 home draw with Villarreal, followed by away defeats at Valencia (2-3) and Levante (0-2). The pattern is of a side that competes but falls short in both boxes: across their last five they average only 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG figures of 1.366 for and 1.722 against. No clean sheets in that run underline their defensive fragility, and facing one of the form attacks in the division away from home is a daunting task.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points towards under 2.5 goals as the likeliest outcome, despite a fairly balanced 44.0% probability of over 2.5. Two of Celta’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Girona, 1-2 vs Real Madrid), while the Betis draw finished with just two goals. For Alaves, only one of their last three has gone over 2.5 (the 2-3 loss at Valencia), with the Villarreal draw and Levante defeat both ending with two goals or fewer. Given Celta’s average of 2.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, along with Alaves’ 1.0 for and 1.6 against, and the relatively modest xG on both sides, a narrow Celta win fits the under 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Celta
Corners in last 5 matches
Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.62, hinting at a game with a reasonable but not excessive number of set-piece situations. Celta’s last three have produced 7, 7 and 16 total corners respectively, while Alaves’ recent matches have seen 7, 12 and 16 corners. That recent trend suggests both sides are capable of forcing the ball into wide areas and drawing blocks, particularly when chasing a result. With Celta likely to have more of the ball at home and Alaves breaking when they can, the predicted corners figure around 10 looks well aligned with the teams’ styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Celta
Shots in last 5 matches
Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.93, pointing to a match with a decent amount of goalmouth action but not a barrage. Celta’s last three games have seen them take 7, 8 and 7 shots, while facing 19, 14 and 15 – evidence of a side that doesn’t necessarily shoot on sight but tends to generate good-quality chances, in line with their 2.076 average xG. Alaves have attempted 8, 10 and 17 shots in their last three, while conceding 10, 19 and 22, numbers that match their 1.366 xG for and 1.722 xG against and support the shots prediction of around 24 combined efforts.

Final Prediction

Celta’s edge comes from their superior form, stronger attacking numbers and the comfort of playing at home, all of which are reflected in their 57.0% win probability. Alaves’ defensive issues and lack of clean sheets make it hard to back them against a side eyeing the top five. The key factor to watch will be whether Alaves can withstand Celta’s sustained pressure without conceding first; if they can’t, the home side’s control and efficiency in the final third should be enough to see them over the line.

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