La Liga 2025-2026: Elche vs Osasuna Prediction - 13 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Elche

Home Team
39%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
37%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 8.7
Expected Shots: 24.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Elche L L L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)

Osasuna W D W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Elche

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.84
# Clean Sheets: 0

Osasuna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.39
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Elche are marginally favoured to take all three points, with a 39.0% probability of a home win compared to 37.0% for Osasuna and 24.0% for the draw. The model leans towards Elche despite Osasuna sitting higher in La Liga (9th with 29 points) than Elche (15th with 24 points). The game is also projected to be open, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at a 56.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Elche come into this fixture on a worrying run of three straight defeats, conceding three goals in each: 1-3 at Sociedad, 1-3 at home to Barcelona, and 2-3 away at Levante. Those matches show a recurring defensive problem, but also a team that still finds the net regularly. Their advanced metrics underline this imbalance: in the last five games they have scored an average of 2.2 goals, but conceded 1.6, while allowing a very high 2.836 expected goals against per match and failing to keep a single clean sheet. Osasuna arrive in far better form, unbeaten in their last three, with wins at Celta (2-1) and Vallecano (3-1) sandwiching an impressive 2-2 home draw against high-flying Villarreal. They have been more controlled in both boxes: over the last five games they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 0.988 expected goals for and 1.388 against. That suggests a more compact side than Elche, even if they too have not managed a clean sheet in their last five outings.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an over 2.5 prediction with a 56.0% probability, and recent results back that up. All three of Elche’s latest matches – 1-3, 1-3, and 2-3 – have gone over 2.5 goals, reflecting their high 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average, plus a worrying 2.836 xG conceded. For Osasuna, all of their last three – 2-1, 2-2, 3-1 – have also finished over 2.5, despite more modest xG numbers (0.988 for, 1.388 against), pointing to clinical finishing and some defensive looseness.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Elche
Corners in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 8.7, suggesting a moderate number of set-piece situations rather than a barrage. Elche’s last three games produced combined corner counts of 6, 10, and 10 (they struggled to win many themselves, notably only 1 at Levante), while Osasuna’s yielded 10, 8, and 7. Elche’s recent pattern shows opponents dominating territory, whereas Osasuna’s more balanced style should still ensure enough attacking phases to support this corners prediction around the 8–9 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Elche
Shots in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.95, indicating a game with a healthy amount of attempts from both sides. Elche’s last three matches saw shot totals of 22, 39, and 32, often with the opposition piling on chances, which aligns with their high xG conceded. Osasuna’s recent games finished with 26, 20, and 25 total shots, consistent with a side that creates and concedes in roughly equal measure. This supports a shots prediction close to 25 expected shots overall, matching the open, attack-minded trend in both teams’ recent outings.

Final Prediction

Elche are given a slight edge mainly due to home advantage and their strong recent scoring record, even if their league position is lower than Osasuna’s. The key factor to watch will be whether Elche’s fragile defence can cope with an Osasuna side that has found a good rhythm in attack; if not, this has all the ingredients of a high-scoring, end-to-end encounter.

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