La Liga 2026-2027: Levante vs Sevilla Prediction - 12 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Levante

Home Team
26%
VS

Sevilla

Away Team
50%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 22.9
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Sevilla

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Attack +18.7 Sevilla
Home advantage +12.9 Levante
Results & dominance +5.1 Sevilla
Defense +3.3 Sevilla
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.9 Sevilla

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Sevilla. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Levante attack & chance creation +8.5 Over
Levante defense +5.1 Over
Sevilla attack & chance creation +3.7 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 7 7 0 0 31 7 24 21
2 Ath Madrid 7 5 1 1 16 7 9 16
3 Betis 7 5 1 1 9 7 2 16
4 Real Madrid 7 5 0 2 18 8 10 15
5 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 10 9 1 13
6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 11 6 5 11
7 La Coruna 7 2 4 1 10 8 2 10
8 Sociedad 7 3 1 3 9 13 -4 10
9 Villarreal 7 2 2 3 13 12 1 8
10 Betis 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
11 Getafe 7 2 2 3 4 7 -3 8
12 Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11 16 -5 8
13 Osasuna 7 2 2 3 6 13 -7 8
14 Celta 7 1 4 2 8 6 2 7
15 Espanol 7 2 1 4 10 10 0 7
16 Santander 7 2 1 4 11 21 -10 7
17 Levante 6 1 2 3 8 12 -4 5
18 Elche 7 1 2 4 11 17 -6 5
19 Valencia 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Malaga 7 0 3 4 3 12 -9 3

Recent Trends

Levante L L D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Malaga (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 0)

Sevilla L W W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs La Coruna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Levante

xG (avg) 2.85
xGA (avg) 2.20
Clean Sheets 2

Sevilla

xG (avg) 0.73
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Sevilla are the most likely winners at 50%, with Levante on 26% and a draw on 24%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 59%.

Match Analysis

Sevilla’s stronger attack is the clearest difference between the sides, while Levante’s home advantage gives them a route into the contest. Levante have averaged 3.5 goals scored at home, but also 3.0 conceded, suggesting their home matches can open up at both ends. Their home chance creation has been strong, though their defensive record leaves room for Sevilla to exploit. Sevilla had beaten Valencia 1-0 and La Coruna 1-0 before losing 1-3 to Barcelona. Levante, meanwhile, drew 0-0 with Malaga before losing 2-4 to Barcelona and 1-3 to Villarreal. Sevilla’s recent wins and better defensive numbers away from home support the visitors, but their latest defeat came against a Barcelona side that had 24 shots.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%. Levante’s attacking play and defensive vulnerability both point toward more scoring, even though Sevilla’s chance creation away from home is a reason for caution.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Levante
Corners in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.2 corners. Levante’s recent matches against Villarreal and Barcelona each featured eight corners, which supports a figure around that level.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Levante
Shots in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 23 shots. Both teams have recently been involved in matches with high shot counts: Levante’s game at Villarreal had 27, while Sevilla’s match with Barcelona had 31.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Levante wins by X goals. Negative = Sevilla wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Levante vs Sevilla with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Levante vs Sevilla
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.2 goals in Sevilla’s favour. That is a narrow advantage, consistent with Sevilla’s higher win probability but not a prediction of a comfortable result.

Final Prediction

Levante’s home attack is the clearest way to upset the forecast, especially if they turn chances into goals at a rate closer to their recent home scoring than their expected goals suggest. Sevilla’s ability to contain that threat will matter as much as their own attacking quality.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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