La Liga 2025-2026: Oviedo vs Ath Bilbao Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Oviedo

Home Team
9%
VS

Ath Bilbao

Away Team
81%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Oviedo W L L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)

Ath Bilbao W D L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oviedo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.10
# Clean Sheets: 1

Ath Bilbao

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.04
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.72
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are strong favourites here, with an 81.0% probability of an away win against bottom‑placed Oviedo, who have just a 9.0% chance of victory and sit 20th in La Liga on 16 points. Bilbao, pushing in the upper half of the table and in the hunt for European spots, are also backed by a 54.0% chance that the game goes over 2.5 goals. The draw is given only a 10.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Oviedo come into this one with some fragile confidence. They did edge Girona 1-0 at home, but that is their only win in the last three, followed by a 3-0 defeat away at leaders Barcelona and a 3-2 loss at Osasuna. Those two away defeats showed both a bit more attacking intent (2 and 1 goals scored in their last two) and the defensive issues that explain why they are bottom with a -22 goal difference. Bilbao’s recent form has been more convincing overall, even if inconsistent in results. They swept Levante 4-2 at home with 22 shots, drew 1-1 against a solid Sociedad side, and narrowly lost 2-1 away to Sevilla while still creating 15 attempts. The advanced numbers underline their attacking edge: Bilbao average 1.2 goals scored over their last 5 but a far higher 2.044 expected goals, suggesting they are consistently creating chances. Oviedo, meanwhile, average just 0.4 goals scored over their last 5 with 0.98 xG, and concede 1.102 xG on average, pointing to a team often second-best in both boxes despite only 0.2 goals conceded per game in that short sample.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 54.0% probability. Two of Oviedo’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Osasuna, 3-0 vs Barcelona), while only the 1-0 win over Girona stayed under. For Bilbao, all three recent games hit at least three goals (4-2 Levante, 1-1 Sociedad, 2-1 Sevilla), and their combination of 1.2 goals scored, 1.6 conceded and a high 2.044 xG in attack supports the expectation of a relatively open contest rather than a tight under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.43, pointing to a match around the 9–10 corners mark. Oviedo’s last three produced 8, 11 and 9 corners respectively, showing that even when they sit deep, games involving them can generate a steady flow of set plays. Bilbao’s recent matches yielded 7, 9 and 10 corners; their front-foot style and high shot volume tend to force blocks and clearances, backing this corners prediction in the 9–10 range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.42, suggesting a game with a decent number of attempts rather than a stalemate. Oviedo recorded 8, 12 and 13 shots in their last three while allowing 9, 15 and 16, which fits with a side often pushed back for long spells. Bilbao’s own numbers – 22, 19 and 15 shots across their last three, backed by 2.044 xG on average – justify a shots prediction in the mid‑20s overall, with the visitors likely taking the majority.

Final Prediction

Bilbao’s superior attacking metrics, higher shot volume and much greater win probability give them a clear edge over a struggling Oviedo side rooted to 20th place. The key factor to watch will be whether Oviedo’s defence can withstand Bilbao’s sustained pressure; if the visitors start converting closer to their xG, this could quickly tilt in favour of the away side.

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