La Liga 2025-2026: Real Madrid vs Celta Prediction

Real Madrid

Home Team
92%
VS

Celta

Away Team
3%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 15 12 1 2 42 17 25 37
2 Real Madrid 15 11 3 1 32 13 19 36
3 Villarreal 14 10 2 2 29 13 16 32
4 Ath Madrid 15 9 4 2 28 14 14 31
5 Betis 14 6 6 2 22 14 8 24
6 Espanol 14 7 3 4 18 16 2 24
7 Getafe 14 6 2 6 13 15 -2 20
8 Betis 15 6 2 7 14 20 -6 20
9 Vallecano 14 4 5 5 13 15 -2 17
10 Sociedad 14 4 4 6 19 21 -2 16
11 Elche 14 3 7 4 15 17 -2 16
12 Celta 14 3 7 4 16 19 -3 16
13 Sevilla 14 5 1 8 19 23 -4 16
14 Alaves 14 4 3 7 12 15 -3 15
15 Valencia 14 3 5 6 13 22 -9 14
16 Mallorca 14 3 4 7 15 22 -7 13
17 Osasuna 14 3 3 8 12 18 -6 12
18 Girona 14 2 6 6 13 26 -13 12
19 Levante 14 2 3 9 16 26 -10 9
20 Oviedo 14 2 3 9 7 22 -15 9

Recent Trends

Real Madrid ✅ ⚪ ⚪ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Valencia (Goals: 4 - 0)

Celta ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Real Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.91
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.78
# Clean Sheets: 3

Celta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.38
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.84
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid is predicted to secure a victory against Celta with a commanding 92.0% probability of winning at home. The likelihood of a draw is considerably lower at 4.0%, and Celta's chances of winning are a mere 3.0%. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals scored, with a 55.0% probability supporting this prediction. Real Madrid is currently positioned second in La Liga, trailing closely behind Barcelona, while Celta occupies the 12th spot.

Match Analysis

Real Madrid's recent performances have been solid, though not flawless. In their last three matches, they achieved a decisive 3-0 win against Ath Bilbao but were held to draws by both Girona and Elche. Despite these setbacks, Real Madrid has shown resilience, maintaining an average of 2.6 goals scored per game over their last five matches, while defensively, they have been robust, conceding an average of just 0.6 goals. Celta, on the other hand, has faced a mixed bag of results. They suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Espanol at home but managed to claim a 1-0 victory away against Alaves. Their home form took another hit with a 2-4 loss to Barcelona. Celta's attack has been relatively consistent, averaging 1.6 goals scored in their last five games, yet their defense has been vulnerable, conceding 1.2 goals on average. It is worth noting that Celta's expected goals conceded stands at 1.844, indicating potential defensive lapses.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid holds a distinct advantage heading into this match, driven by their superior attacking and defensive metrics. The team's ability to both score and keep clean sheets gives them a significant edge over Celta. A key factor to watch will be Real Madrid's attacking prowess, which could exploit Celta's defensive frailties and maintain their pursuit of the top spot in La Liga.