La Liga 2025-2026: Real Madrid vs Sociedad Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Real Madrid

Home Team
91%
VS

Sociedad

Away Team
4%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 28.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Real Madrid W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 5 - 1)

Sociedad W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Real Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.86
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.19
# Clean Sheets: 3

Sociedad

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.47
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.10
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid are strong favourites at home, with a 91.0% probability of victory against Sociedad, who have just a 4.0% chance, making a home win the clear call. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 61.0%, suggesting a lively contest. In the current La Liga table, Madrid sit 2nd with 57 points, while Sociedad are 8th on 31 points.

Match Analysis

Real Madrid come into this with real momentum: three straight wins against Valencia (2-0), Vallecano (2-1) and Villarreal (2-0), mixing control with cutting edge both home and away. They’ve averaged 2.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded over their last five, backed up by a strong 2.856 average expected goals (xG) for and 1.19 xG against, plus three clean sheets in that span. That combination points to a side not only finishing chances but also consistently creating more than their opponents. Sociedad’s form is solid if less dominant: home wins over Elche (3-1) and Celta (3-1) wrapped around a gritty 1-1 draw at Athletic Bilbao. They’re averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last five, with 1.47 xG for and 1.104 xG against, but notably have no clean sheets in that run. Their recent matches show they can hurt teams in attack, yet they’re also giving opponents enough chances to suggest Real Madrid’s forwards will get opportunities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Real Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 61.0% is supported by the recent scoring patterns of both sides. Two of Real Madrid’s last three league matches finished under 2.5 (2-0, 2-0) and one over (2-1), but their averages of 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus a high 2.856 xG, indicate they regularly produce enough chances to push games towards three or more goals. Sociedad’s last three all cleared the 2.5 line (3-1, 1-1, 3-1), and with 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, plus 1.47 xG for, they look likely to contribute to an open encounter rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.21, a figure that fits both teams’ recent trends and attacking intent, forming a balanced corners prediction. Real Madrid’s last three outings produced 13, 13 and 12 total corners respectively, underlining how their front-foot style and volume of attacks naturally generate set-piece situations. Sociedad’s games have also seen plenty of activity out wide, with 6, 9 and 6 corners combined in their last three, so Madrid’s territorial dominance plus Sociedad’s counter-attacking threat should combine to hit around the predicted corners mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 28.01, which aligns with the way both teams have been playing. Madrid’s last three league matches saw them attempt 11, 16 and 14 shots, while conceding 7, 11 and 8, matching their strong attacking xG profile. Sociedad’s recent games have been shot-heavy too (11, 9, 10 attempts; conceding 11, 19, 17), so a shots prediction near 28 expected shots overall fits a matchup where both sides create enough to support the underlying xG numbers.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid’s edge comes from their superior form, higher xG, defensive solidity and home advantage, all reflected in the 91.0% win probability. Sociedad’s attacking spark means this shouldn’t be a straightforward procession, but their lack of recent clean sheets is worrying against such a clinical side. A key factor to watch will be how Sociedad’s defence copes with sustained Madrid pressure and whether they can convert breaks into enough chances to keep the hosts honest.

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