La Liga 2026-2027: Santander vs Valencia Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Santander

Home Team
44%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
29%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%
Expected Corners: 10.4
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Santander

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Santander
Attack +5.3 Valencia
Chance creation (xG data) +3.9 Santander
Results & dominance +3.3 Valencia
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Santander

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Santander. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Santander defense +8.8 Over
Valencia defense +3.9 Over
Valencia attack & chance creation +2.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 7 7 0 0 31 7 24 21
2 Ath Madrid 7 5 1 1 16 7 9 16
3 Betis 7 5 1 1 9 7 2 16
4 Real Madrid 7 5 0 2 18 8 10 15
5 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 10 9 1 13
6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 11 6 5 11
7 La Coruna 7 2 4 1 10 8 2 10
8 Sociedad 7 3 1 3 9 13 -4 10
9 Villarreal 7 2 2 3 13 12 1 8
10 Betis 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
11 Getafe 7 2 2 3 4 7 -3 8
12 Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11 16 -5 8
13 Osasuna 7 2 2 3 6 13 -7 8
14 Celta 7 1 4 2 8 6 2 7
15 Espanol 7 2 1 4 10 10 0 7
16 Santander 7 2 1 4 11 21 -10 7
17 Levante 6 1 2 3 8 12 -4 5
18 Elche 7 1 2 4 11 17 -6 5
19 Valencia 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Malaga 7 0 3 4 3 12 -9 3

Recent Trends

Santander L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 7)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 2)

Valencia L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs La Coruna (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Santander

xG (avg) 1.97
xGA (avg) 1.37
Clean Sheets 0

Valencia

xG (avg) 0.65
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Santander are the most likely winners at 44%, with Valencia at 29% and a draw at 27%. The lean is toward over 2.5 goals, at 61%.

Match Analysis

Santander’s home advantage and stronger chance creation are the clearest reasons for the home lean. Their recent home figures are encouraging in attack, but the defence is a concern: Santander have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches, and have conceded 21 goals in seven league games. The 2-1 home win over Alaves came before defeats of 2-7 away to Barcelona and, most recently, 0-5 away to Celta. Valencia have had a slightly better return across their last three, with a 1-0 away win over Alaves between defeats of 0-1 away to Sevilla and 2-3 at home to Sociedad. Santander have averaged 2.3 goals at home from 2.0 expected goals, a small gap between their scoring and the chances created.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Santander
Goals in last 5 matches
Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%. Santander’s defensive record is the strongest reason for expecting goals, while Valencia have also conceded regularly, allowing 13 in seven league matches.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Santander
Corners in last 5 matches
Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.4 corners. Recent matches have included high counts, notably 18 corners in Barcelona’s match against Santander and 12 in Valencia’s meeting with Sociedad.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Santander
Shots in last 5 matches
Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 26 shots. Recent totals have been substantial, including 35 in Santander’s match against Barcelona and 43 in Valencia’s game against Sociedad.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Santander wins by X goals. Negative = Valencia wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Santander vs Valencia with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Santander vs Valencia
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.2 goals in Santander’s favour. That is a narrow home lean, consistent with the close gap between the teams’ win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Santander’s defensive weakness is the clearest route for Valencia to overturn the forecast. Valencia scored twice against Sociedad, and another productive outing could expose a home defence that has struggled to keep opponents out.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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