La Liga 2025-2026: Sociedad vs Betis Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sociedad

Home Team
43%
VS

Betis

Away Team
33%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 29 1 4 89 31 58 88
2 Real Madrid 34 24 5 5 70 31 39 77
3 Villarreal 34 21 5 8 64 39 25 68
4 Ath Madrid 34 19 6 9 58 37 21 63
5 Betis 34 13 14 7 52 41 11 53
6 Celta 34 12 11 11 48 44 4 47
7 Getafe 34 13 5 16 28 36 -8 44
8 Betis 34 13 5 16 40 50 -10 44
9 Sociedad 34 11 10 13 52 53 -1 43
10 Osasuna 34 11 9 14 40 42 -2 42
11 Vallecano 34 10 12 12 35 41 -6 42
12 Valencia 34 10 9 15 37 50 -13 39
13 Espanol 34 10 9 15 37 51 -14 39
14 Elche 34 9 11 14 45 53 -8 38
15 Mallorca 34 10 8 16 42 51 -9 38
16 Girona 34 9 11 14 36 51 -15 38
17 Sevilla 34 10 7 17 41 55 -14 37
18 Alaves 34 9 9 16 40 53 -13 36
19 Levante 34 8 9 17 38 55 -17 33
20 Oviedo 34 6 10 18 26 54 -28 28

Recent Trends

Sociedad L D L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)

Betis W D W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sociedad

xG (avg) 2.37
xGA (avg) 0.82
Clean Sheets 1

Betis

xG (avg) 1.11
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Real Sociedad are marginal favourites here, with a 43.0% chance of winning compared to Betis’ 33.0%, and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home victory and an over 2.5 goals prediction (57.0% for over), in a clash between 9th-placed Sociedad (43 points) and 5th-placed Betis (53 points) in a tight race for European spots.

Match Analysis

Sociedad come into this one on a sticky run: defeat at Sevilla (0-1), a wild 3-3 draw at Rayo Vallecano, and a narrow 0-1 home loss to Getafe. The pattern is inconsistency rather than collapse – they’ve created chances (13 shots in each of the last two games) but haven’t always turned pressure into goals. Over the last five matches, they’ve averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, backed by a strong 2.368 expected goals (xG) per game and only 0.824 xG conceded, suggesting their underlying performances are better than recent results. Betis, fifth in the table, look steadier: a 3-0 win over bottom side Oviedo, a creditable 1-1 draw with Real Madrid, and a 3-2 away win at Girona. They’ve taken seven points from those three fixtures, scoring seven and conceding three, with two clean sheets in their last five overall. Their advanced numbers are more modest – 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average in their last five, with 1.11 xG for and 1.348 xG against – which points to a team that’s efficient but occasionally vulnerable at the back.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 57.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Sociedad’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Vallecano, plus the two 1-0s under), while two of Betis’ last three have also gone over (3-0 vs Oviedo, 3-2 at Girona) with only the 1-1 vs Real Madrid staying under 2.5. With Sociedad averaging 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded from strong xG figures, and Betis at 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, the numbers support a lively, chance-filled contest rather than a cagey one.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches
Betis
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.64 total corners in this match. Sociedad’s last three have produced 6, 10 and 9 corners respectively, while Betis’ games have seen 9, 13 and 4, indicating reasonable variation but generally active attacking zones. With both sides willing to attack – Sociedad generating good xG and Betis pushing forward even against Real Madrid – the predicted corners total around the 9–10 mark fits a matchup of teams that like to work the wide areas and force set-pieces.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches
Betis
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 24.71 total attempts, in line with how both teams have been playing recently. Sociedad’s last three have seen them involved in matches with 25, 37 and 18 shots, while Betis’ have produced 27, 31 and 16 shots. That makes a shots prediction in the mid‑20s reasonable, especially given Sociedad’s high xG output and Betis’ readiness to pull the trigger against strong opposition.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sociedad wins by X goals. Negative = Betis wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sociedad vs Betis with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sociedad vs Betis
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is a narrow +0.12 in favour of Sociedad, effectively calling this as almost level but with a slight home edge. Over the last three games, Sociedad’s goal difference is -2 (3 scored, 5 conceded), while Betis are +4 (7 scored, 3 conceded), but the model still leans towards the hosts due to their superior xG balance and home advantage. That expected spread aligns with the 43.0% home-win probability versus Betis’ 33.0%, pointing to a tight game that could be decided by small margins.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s edge comes from their underlying numbers: they create more and concede less in terms of chance quality, even if their recent results haven’t always reflected that. Betis bring better recent form and league position, but may find it harder to control the game against a side that regularly wins the xG battle. Watch the midfield exchanges and chance creation: whichever team can translate their attacking intent into clinical finishing is likely to tilt this finely balanced contest.

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