La Liga 2025-2026: Sociedad vs Levante Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sociedad

Home Team
59%
VS

Levante

Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 28.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 29 24 1 4 78 28 50 73
2 Real Madrid 29 22 3 4 63 26 37 69
3 Villarreal 29 18 4 7 54 34 20 58
4 Ath Madrid 29 17 6 6 49 28 21 57
5 Betis 29 11 11 7 44 37 7 44
6 Celta 29 10 11 8 41 35 6 41
7 Sociedad 29 10 8 11 44 45 -1 38
8 Getafe 29 11 5 13 25 31 -6 38
9 Betis 29 11 5 13 32 41 -9 38
10 Osasuna 29 10 7 12 34 35 -1 37
11 Espanol 29 10 7 12 36 44 -8 37
12 Valencia 29 9 8 12 32 42 -10 35
13 Girona 29 8 10 11 31 44 -13 34
14 Vallecano 29 7 11 11 28 35 -7 32
15 Sevilla 29 8 7 14 37 49 -12 31
16 Alaves 29 8 7 14 30 41 -11 31
17 Elche 29 6 11 12 38 46 -8 29
18 Mallorca 29 7 7 15 34 47 -13 28
19 Levante 29 6 8 15 34 48 -14 26
20 Oviedo 29 4 9 16 20 48 -28 21

Recent Trends

Sociedad L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 3)

Levante W D D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sociedad

xG (avg) 2.23
xGA (avg) 1.80
Clean Sheets 1

Levante

xG (avg) 1.02
xGA (avg) 2.58
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Sociedad are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 59.0% probability of victory against a Levante side given just a 20.0% chance, and a 21.0% likelihood of a draw. The over 2.5 prediction is also strong at 62.0%, suggesting a game with goals between 7th‑placed Sociedad (38 points) and 19th‑placed Levante (26 points) in a clash that matters at both ends of the table.

Match Analysis

Sociedad arrive in mixed but lively form. Their last three outings have all been open contests: a 1-3 defeat at Villarreal, a 3-1 home win over Osasuna and a 2-3 loss at Atlético Madrid. They’ve scored six times in those three games and conceded seven, underlining an attacking mindset but also a fragile back line. Over their last five matches they average 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, backed up by strong attacking underlying numbers with 2.232 expected goals per game. Levante, 19th and fighting to escape the bottom three, have steadied slightly with a three‑match unbeaten run: a 4-2 home win over Oviedo followed by 1-1 draws with Vallecano (away) and Girona (home). They are more conservative in output, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over the last five, with just 1.024 expected goals created per game and a worrying 2.582 expected goals conceded – a sign that opponents are creating plenty of chances against them. That defensive vulnerability, especially away from home, is a key reason the hosts are such clear favourites.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 62.0%, and recent scorelines back that up. Two of Sociedad’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (4, 4 and 5 total goals), and all three have had both teams scoring. Levante’s last three have been more mixed – six goals against Oviedo, then two goals in each of the draws – so one over and two under 2.5. Still, Sociedad’s averages of 2.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, plus Levante’s 2.0 goals conceded and very high xG against (2.582), point towards another match with chances and goals rather than a cagey, under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 10.19, about what you’d anticipate from a game where both sides like to get shots away. Sociedad’s last three have produced 9, 8 and 9 corners respectively (they earned 5, 3 and 1 themselves), numbers that fit nicely with a total around ten. Levante’s matches have been slightly more open in wide areas, yielding 4, 11 and 5 corners (they took 3, 6 and 2), suggesting they can contribute significantly when they attack with width. With Sociedad likely to press at home and Levante needing points, a total near the predicted corners figure feels realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 28.57, in line with how both teams have been playing. Sociedad’s recent games have contained 32, 27 and 31 shots, while Levante’s have seen 30, 37 and 36 efforts, underlining how open their matches can become. Given Sociedad’s strong attacking xG (2.232 per game) and Levante’s tendency to allow plenty of chances (2.582 xG conceded), a shots prediction around that 28–30 mark looks conservative rather than ambitious, with both sides likely to test the goalkeepers regularly.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s superior league position, stronger attacking metrics and home advantage give them a clear edge over a Levante side still leaking chances and under pressure near the bottom. If the hosts maintain their recent scoring rate and exploit Levante’s porous defence, the predicted home win and over 2.5 goals could well align. Keep an eye on how often Sociedad manage to get their forwards into shooting positions inside the box – that battle against Levante’s shaky back line should define the match.

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