La Liga 2025-2026: Villarreal vs Sociedad Prediction - 20 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Villarreal

Home Team
59%
VS

Sociedad

Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 28 23 1 4 77 28 49 70
2 Real Madrid 28 21 3 4 60 24 36 66
3 Ath Madrid 28 17 6 5 47 25 22 57
4 Villarreal 28 17 4 7 51 33 18 55
5 Betis 28 11 11 6 43 35 8 44
6 Celta 28 10 11 7 38 31 7 41
7 Sociedad 28 10 8 10 43 42 1 38
8 Espanol 28 10 7 11 35 42 -7 37
9 Getafe 28 10 5 13 23 30 -7 35
10 Betis 28 10 5 13 30 40 -10 35
11 Osasuna 28 9 7 12 33 35 -2 34
12 Girona 28 8 10 10 31 43 -12 34
13 Vallecano 28 7 11 10 28 34 -6 32
14 Valencia 28 8 8 12 30 42 -12 32
15 Sevilla 28 8 7 13 37 47 -10 31
16 Mallorca 28 7 7 14 33 45 -12 28
17 Alaves 28 7 7 14 26 38 -12 28
18 Elche 28 5 11 12 36 45 -9 26
19 Levante 28 5 8 15 30 46 -16 23
20 Oviedo 28 4 9 15 18 44 -26 21

Recent Trends

Villarreal D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 0)

Sociedad W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

xG (avg) 1.71
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 1

Sociedad

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 1.70
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are favoured to take all three points here, with a home win given a 59.0% probability against just 20.0% for a Sociedad victory and 21.0% for the draw. The model leans towards a tight contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite both sides’ attacking quality. In the table, Villarreal sit 4th on 55 points, firmly in the Champions League positions, while Sociedad are 7th on 38 points, chasing that top‑five spot.

Match Analysis

Villarreal come into this with mixed but generally positive recent form: a 2-1 home win over Elche, a 1-1 draw away at Alaves, and a 4-1 defeat at Barcelona. The last five games underline their attacking consistency, averaging 2.2 goals scored with 1.7119 expected goals per match, while conceding 1.2 from 1.346 expected goals. That suggests a side that regularly creates enough chances to win games and is defensively sound enough to cope in most fixtures, even if Barcelona exposed them. Sociedad’s last three show a similar story of potential with defensive question marks: a 3-1 win over Osasuna, a narrow 1-0 victory away at Mallorca, and a 3-2 defeat at Atletico Madrid. Over their last five, they are averaging 1.4 goals scored but 1.8 conceded, with only 1.15 expected goals going forward and 1.704 expected goals against. That imbalance hints at a team that can be opened up, particularly against top‑four opposition like Villarreal, who are currently sharper at both ends of the pitch.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards under 2.5 with a 51.0% implied likelihood, even though the over 2.5 prediction is not far behind at 49.0%. Two of Villarreal’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Elche, 1-4 vs Barcelona), with only the 1-1 at Alaves staying under. Sociedad have also seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3-1 vs Osasuna, 3-2 vs Atletico), with just the 1-0 win at Mallorca under. The deciding factor for under 2.5 here is that both teams’ average expected goals – 1.7119 for Villarreal and 1.15 for Sociedad – suggest a game more likely to sit around the two-goal mark than become a shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate tally, with 9.49 expected total corners in this match. Villarreal’s recent games produced 7, 10 and 5 corners respectively, while Sociedad’s have seen 8, 9 and 10. Both sides attack, but not in a way that produces relentless wide bombardment; instead they mix central play with occasional wing use, which fits a forecast just under double figures for predicted corners rather than an extreme total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 25.14 expected total shots, the shots prediction is for a fairly open encounter without being end‑to‑end chaos. Villarreal’s last three outings saw 18, 29 and 25 combined shots, while Sociedad’s produced 27, 31 and 18. Those numbers align neatly with the expected shots here and match the xG profiles: Villarreal’s 1.7119 xG and Sociedad’s 1.15 xG per game point to enough attempts to keep both goalkeepers busy without guaranteeing a goal glut.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s edge comes from their stronger recent balance between goals scored and conceded, plus the clear home advantage reflected in that 59.0% win probability. Sociedad’s leaky defensive metrics tilt the game towards the Yellow Submarine, even if the overall goal volume may stay relatively low. Watch the midfield battle: whichever side controls the tempo there is likely to decide whether this turns into a controlled Villarreal home win or a more chaotic contest.

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