Ligue 1 2026-2027: Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Le Havre

Home Team
46%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
27%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 28.0
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Le Havre

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Le Havre
Defense +4.2 Le Havre
Attack +1.6 Auxerre
Results & dominance +1.0 Auxerre

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Le Havre. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Auxerre defense +6.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Le Havre defense +1.8 Over
Auxerre attack & chance creation +1.7 Under
Form & results +1.1 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 6 4 2 0 10 5 5 14
2 Lille 6 4 1 1 9 4 5 13
3 Rennes 6 4 1 1 12 10 2 13
4 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11 4 7 11
5 Paris FC 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
6 Paris SG 6 3 2 1 11 8 3 11
7 Brest 6 2 2 2 12 9 3 8
8 Lorient 6 2 2 2 6 6 0 8
9 Nice 6 2 2 2 5 7 -2 8
10 Lens 6 2 1 3 11 10 1 7
11 Strasbourg 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Angers 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Marseille 6 2 0 4 9 8 1 6
14 Le Mans 6 1 3 2 10 12 -2 6
15 Toulouse 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
16 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 8 16 -8 6
17 Troyes 6 1 1 4 4 13 -9 4
18 Le Havre 6 0 2 4 4 8 -4 2

Recent Trends

Le Havre L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 1)

Auxerre L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

xG (avg) 1.10
xGA (avg) 1.72
Clean Sheets 1

Auxerre

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 3.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Le Havre are the most likely winners at 46%, with a draw and an Auxerre win both at 27%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 63%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest reason to favour Le Havre, while their stronger defensive record also supports the hosts. Auxerre have conceded 16 goals in six league matches, twice Le Havre’s total, and have been especially vulnerable away from home, allowing an average of 4.0 goals there. Le Havre’s home attack has averaged only 0.3 goals, though its 1.1 expected goals suggests their scoring return has been below the chances created. Le Havre’s latest match was a 0-1 loss away to Lille, following a 2-3 defeat at Toulouse and a 0-0 draw with Angers. Auxerre come into this after losing 1-4 away to Rennes, but that followed home wins over Brest, 2-1, and Nice, 1-0. Those results show Auxerre can find ways to win, but their latest heavy defeat underlines the defensive risk Le Havre can exploit.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 63%. Auxerre’s poor away defending is the strongest reason, with their recent away record showing an average of four goals conceded per match. Le Havre’s home scoring has been modest, so their ability to turn chances into goals will matter.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.5 corners in total. Recent matches have featured healthy corner counts for both sides, including 11 in Le Havre’s latest game and 17 in Auxerre’s defeat to Rennes.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 28 shots. Le Havre registered 17 attempts against Lille, while Auxerre’s latest match against Rennes featured 33 shots between the teams.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Le Havre wins by X goals. Negative = Auxerre wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Le Havre vs Auxerre with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Le Havre vs Auxerre
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Le Havre’s favour. That fits the home-win lean, though the 46% probability leaves plenty of room for a draw or an Auxerre result.

Final Prediction

Le Havre’s chance creation at home, which has outpaced their actual scoring, could decide whether they make their home advantage count. If that finishing gap persists, Auxerre’s capacity to score and take points becomes more significant.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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