Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Monaco Prediction

Le Havre

Home Team
25%
VS

Monaco

Away Team
56%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 18 14 1 3 32 13 19 43
2 Paris SG 18 13 3 2 40 15 25 42
3 Marseille 18 11 2 5 41 19 22 35
4 Lyon 18 10 3 5 27 18 9 33
5 Lille 18 10 2 6 33 25 8 32
6 Rennes 18 8 7 3 30 25 5 31
7 Strasbourg 18 8 3 7 28 22 6 27
8 Toulouse 18 7 5 6 29 23 6 26
9 Monaco 18 7 2 9 28 33 -5 23
10 Brest 18 6 4 8 24 29 -5 22
11 Angers 18 6 4 8 20 25 -5 22
12 Lorient 18 5 7 6 23 30 -7 22
13 Paris FC 18 5 4 9 24 32 -8 19
14 Le Havre 18 4 7 7 16 24 -8 19
15 Nice 18 5 3 10 21 35 -14 18
16 Nantes 18 3 5 10 17 30 -13 14
17 Auxerre 18 3 3 12 14 28 -14 12
18 Metz 18 3 3 12 19 40 -21 12

Recent Trends

Le Havre ⚪ ✅ ❌ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)

Monaco ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.81
# Clean Sheets: 1

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.99
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Monaco is favored to win against Le Havre, with a 56.0% probability of victory. This is contrasted with a 25.0% probability for Le Havre to secure the win. The match is likely to see over 2.5 goals, with a 53.0% chance of this outcome. Currently, Monaco sits in 9th place on the Ligue 1 table, while Le Havre is positioned at 14th.

Match Analysis

Le Havre's recent performances show a mixed bag of results, having drawn against Rennes, won against Angers, and suffered a defeat to Lyon. Their defense has been relatively sound, with an average of 0.6 goals conceded per game over the last five matches, which includes one clean sheet. However, their attacking prowess remains limited, with only 0.8 goals scored on average in the same period, although they have managed a slightly higher expected goals rate of 1.178. Monaco, on the other hand, has been on a three-game losing streak, with consecutive losses to Lorient, Lyon, and Marseille. Their offense is more productive than Le Havre's, averaging 1.4 goals per game over the last five matches, but their defense has been porous, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game. Monaco's expected goals metrics suggest they should be capable of more, with an expected goals scored of 1.96, indicating potential for improvement in their offensive execution.

Final Prediction

Monaco's edge in this matchup lies in their superior attacking capability, as evidenced by their higher average and expected goals scored. Despite their recent losses, they present a more potent threat that could exploit Le Havre's defensive vulnerabilities. A key factor to watch will be Monaco's ability to convert their expected goals into actual goals, which could prove decisive in securing the victory.