Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lens vs Auxerre Prediction

Lens

Home Team
84%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
7%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 17 13 1 3 31 13 18 40
2 Paris SG 17 12 3 2 37 15 22 39
3 Marseille 17 10 2 5 36 17 19 32
4 Lille 17 10 2 5 33 22 11 32
5 Lyon 17 9 3 5 25 17 8 30
6 Rennes 17 8 6 3 29 24 5 30
7 Strasbourg 17 7 3 7 26 21 5 24
8 Toulouse 17 6 5 6 24 22 2 23
9 Monaco 17 7 2 8 27 30 -3 23
10 Angers 17 6 4 7 18 20 -2 22
11 Brest 17 6 4 7 23 27 -4 22
12 Lorient 17 4 7 6 20 29 -9 19
13 Le Havre 17 4 6 7 15 23 -8 18
14 Nice 17 5 3 9 20 30 -10 18
15 Paris FC 17 4 4 9 22 31 -9 16
16 Nantes 17 3 5 9 16 28 -12 14
17 Auxerre 17 3 3 11 14 27 -13 12
18 Metz 17 3 3 11 18 38 -20 12

Recent Trends

Lens ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 0)

Auxerre ❌ ❌ ✅ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.89
# Clean Sheets: 3

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.11
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming Ligue 1 match, Lens is predicted to secure a victory against Auxerre with an 84% probability, reflecting their current top position in the league standings. Given the predicted result, fans can anticipate a match with over 2.5 goals, supported by a 55% probability. Lens, sitting comfortably at the top of the table, faces Auxerre, who are struggling at 17th place and are embroiled in a relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Lens comes into this fixture riding high on a wave of success, having won their last three matches. Their recent performances include a convincing 3-0 away win against Toulouse, a solid 2-0 home victory over Nice, and a hard-fought 2-1 triumph at Nantes. These results highlight Lens' robust defensive capabilities, as evidenced by three clean sheets in their last five matches. Offensively, they have been efficient, averaging 2.0 goals per game, with an expected goals metric of 2.242, suggesting a well-functioning attack. Conversely, Auxerre has faced a rough patch, recently losing to Brest and Lille, although they did manage a win against Metz, scoring three goals. Despite this, their overall form remains concerning, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game over their last five matches. Their defensive frailties are further exposed by their high expected goals conceded, standing at 2.11. This defensive vulnerability could prove decisive against a high-scoring team like Lens.

Final Prediction

Lens holds a clear advantage in this matchup, largely due to their superior form and defensive solidity. Their ability to maintain clean sheets and capitalize on scoring opportunities sets them apart from Auxerre. Fans should keep an eye on Lens' attacking prowess, which will likely be a decisive factor in the game, as they aim to extend their lead at the top of the table.