Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lens vs Le Havre Prediction
Lens
Home Team
87%
VS
Le Havre
Away Team
5%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5:
54%
Under 2.5:
46%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris FC | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 15 | 26 | 45 |
| 2 | Lens | 19 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 43 |
| 3 | Marseille | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 38 |
| 4 | Lyon | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Lille | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | Rennes | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 30 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 29 |
| 9 | Lorient | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Monaco | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 24 |
| 11 | Angers | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 23 |
| 12 | Brest | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 22 |
| 13 | Nice | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 21 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 20 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 20 |
| 16 | Nantes | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 14 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
| 18 | Metz | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 12 |
Recent Trends
Lens
- Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
Le Havre
- Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Lens
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.37
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.85
# Clean Sheets:
3
Le Havre
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.25
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Lens and Le Havre is heavily tilted in favor of Lens, with an 87% probability of a home win. This high confidence in Lens is supported by their strong standing as the second-ranked team in Ligue 1, contrasting sharply with Le Havre's 15th position. The game is also predicted to surpass 2.5 goals, with a 54% likelihood, suggesting an offensive display.
Match Analysis
Lens enters this match with a robust form, having secured two wins in their last three matches. They bounced back from an away defeat against Marseille with commanding victories over Auxerre and Toulouse, showcasing their ability to both score and keep clean sheets. Their recent performances are backed by impressive advanced metrics, including an average of 1.8 goals per game and a solid defensive record with just 0.2 goals conceded on average.
In contrast, Le Havre's recent outings have been less convincing. While they managed to hold Monaco to a goalless draw and edged out Angers, their overall scoring has been sparse, averaging just 0.4 goals per game. Despite maintaining two clean sheets in their last five matches, the team's defensive vulnerabilities are highlighted by an average of 1.0 goals conceded per game. Their expected goals metrics further underline the uphill battle they face, with higher expected goals against them compared to what they generate.
Final Prediction
Lens holds a clear advantage in this matchup, driven by their superior league standing and recent form. Their ability to score consistently and defend resolutely gives them an edge over Le Havre. A key factor to watch will be Lens's attacking prowess, which could prove decisive if they capitalize on Le Havre's defensive lapses. Football fans can expect an engaging contest with a likely display of goals.