Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lens vs Rennes Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Lens

Home Team
75%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 20 15 3 2 43 16 27 48
2 Lens 20 15 1 4 34 16 18 46
3 Marseille 20 12 3 5 46 22 24 39
4 Lyon 20 12 3 5 33 20 13 39
5 Lille 20 10 2 8 34 30 4 32
6 Rennes 20 8 7 5 30 31 -1 31
7 Strasbourg 20 9 3 8 33 25 8 30
8 Toulouse 20 8 6 6 31 23 8 30
9 Lorient 20 7 7 6 27 31 -4 28
10 Monaco 20 8 3 9 32 33 -1 27
11 Angers 20 7 5 8 21 25 -4 26
12 Brest 20 6 5 9 26 33 -7 23
13 Nice 20 6 4 10 27 38 -11 22
14 Paris FC 20 5 6 9 26 34 -8 21
15 Le Havre 20 4 8 8 16 25 -9 20
16 Nantes 20 3 5 12 19 36 -17 14
17 Auxerre 20 3 4 13 14 29 -15 13
18 Metz 20 3 3 14 21 46 -25 12

Recent Trends

Lens W L W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)

Rennes L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.31
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.78
# Clean Sheets: 4

Rennes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.84
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lens are clear favourites at home, with a 75.0% probability of victory against Rennes’ 12.0%, and they come into this clash sitting 2nd in Ligue 1, while Rennes are 6th. The game is expected to be relatively open, with a 56.0% chance of over 2.5 goals and a predicted outcome of more than two goals scored overall. A goal for both sides is slightly favoured too, at 57.0%.

Match Analysis

Lens approach this match in strong form: two wins in their last three (1-0 vs Le Havre, 1-0 vs Auxerre) and a single setback away to Marseille (1-3). At home, they’ve been efficient and tight at the back, repeatedly doing just enough to edge games. Over their last five matches they average 1.6 goals scored and an impressive 0.0 conceded, with four clean sheets, backed up by strong underlying numbers: 2.314 expected goals created and only 0.782 expected goals allowed on average. Rennes, by contrast, are wobbling. They’ve taken just one point from their last three games, with heavy defeats to Monaco (0-4) and Lorient (0-2) and a 1-1 draw against Le Havre. The recent stats underline the slump: only 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average over the last five, with their expected goals figures (0.886 for, 1.844 against) suggesting they’re struggling to create and are giving up good chances.

Final Prediction

Lens’ combination of defensive solidity, strong chance creation and home advantage explains why they are strongly favoured to win. Rennes will need a major reaction to disrupt a Lens side that has turned consistency into a title challenge. The key factor to watch will be whether Rennes can break through Lens’ mean defence early, or whether sustained Lens pressure eventually turns into another controlled home win.

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