Ligue 1 2026-2027: Lille vs Brest Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lille

Home Team
36%
VS

Brest

Away Team
36%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 28.1
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Brest

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lille
Chance creation (xG data) +10.5 Brest
Attack +5.8 Brest
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.9 Lille
Results & dominance +1.1 Lille

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Brest. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Brest attack & chance creation +4.2 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Lille attack & chance creation +2.1 Over
Form & results +1.8 Under
Brest defense +1.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 6 4 2 0 10 5 5 14
2 Lille 6 4 1 1 9 4 5 13
3 Rennes 6 4 1 1 12 10 2 13
4 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11 4 7 11
5 Paris FC 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
6 Paris SG 6 3 2 1 11 8 3 11
7 Brest 6 2 2 2 12 9 3 8
8 Lorient 6 2 2 2 6 6 0 8
9 Nice 6 2 2 2 5 7 -2 8
10 Lens 6 2 1 3 11 10 1 7
11 Strasbourg 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Angers 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Marseille 6 2 0 4 9 8 1 6
14 Le Mans 6 1 3 2 10 12 -2 6
15 Toulouse 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
16 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 8 16 -8 6
17 Troyes 6 1 1 4 4 13 -9 4
18 Le Havre 6 0 2 4 4 8 -4 2

Recent Trends

Lille W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 2)

Brest W L L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lille

xG (avg) 1.51
xGA (avg) 0.99
Clean Sheets 3

Brest

xG (avg) 1.98
xGA (avg) 1.05
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The result call is Brest, but the win probabilities are level at 36% each, with a draw at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.

Match Analysis

Lille’s home advantage is a meaningful counterweight to Brest’s stronger chance creation and attack. Lille have conceded an average of 0.7 goals at home, and have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches overall. Brest, by contrast, have yet to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Brest’s attack showed its potential in the latest outing, a 5-1 win over Angers, following defeats of 1-2 at Auxerre and 0-1 against Paris SG. Lille’s latest match was a 1-0 win over Le Havre, after a 1-2 loss at Nice and a 2-0 win over Troyes. Brest’s away scoring average of 1.7 goals is below its 2.0 expected goals, suggesting their chances have been worth more than their actual return.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lille
Goals in last 5 matches
Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals has a 59% probability, with Brest’s attacking threat the strongest reason for the lean. Both sides’ chance creation also supports goals, although Lille’s recent results include two clean sheets in their last three matches.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lille
Corners in last 5 matches
Brest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.8 corners in total. Recent match totals for the two teams have ranged from five to 11, putting the estimate around the middle of that span.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lille
Shots in last 5 matches
Brest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 28 shots. Recent totals include 31 shots in Lille’s match against Nice and 31 in Brest’s match against Paris SG, suggesting both sides can contribute to a busy shot count.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lille wins by X goals. Negative = Brest wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lille vs Brest with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lille vs Brest
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.1 of a goal in Lille’s favour, effectively close to level. That is consistent with the teams having identical win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Brest’s ability to turn their away chances into goals could decide whether Lille’s home defensive record holds. The visitors’ latest five-goal performance is a clear warning, but their away scoring has so far fallen short of their chance quality.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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