Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lille vs Metz Prediction
Lille
Home Team
95%
VS
Metz
Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5:
55%
Under 2.5:
45%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Paris FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Strasbourg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Lens | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Rennes | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Lorient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Nantes | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Angers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Metz | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Lille
- Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 1)
Metz
- Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 5)
- 5th Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Lille
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.26
# Clean Sheets:
1
Metz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.04
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
3.00
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Lille and Metz is heavily tipped in favor of the home team, Lille, with a staggering 95% probability of victory. This prediction is complemented by a 55% likelihood of the match having over 2.5 goals. Currently stationed at 6th place in Ligue 1, Lille seems poised to capitalize on their superior form against bottom-placed Metz, who are struggling at 18th.
Match Analysis
Lille's recent performances have been a mixed bag, securing a commendable away victory against Nantes, followed by a hard-fought draw at home against Paris SG, and a narrow loss to Lyon. They have demonstrated a solid defensive setup, conceding an average of only 0.75 goals per game in their last five outings, alongside maintaining one clean sheet. Their expected goals metrics also suggest they have been creating ample scoring opportunities, averaging 1.7825 expected goals per match.
Conversely, Metz finds themselves in dire straits, notably without a win in their last eight fixtures. Their recent matches have seen them suffer heavy defeats against Toulouse and Marseille, with a solitary draw against Le Havre. Metz’s defensive frailties are glaring, as they have conceded an alarming average of 3.75 goals per match in their last five games. Their attacking output has also been lackluster, with an average of just 1.0 goals scored per game, mirroring their expected goals figure of 1.0375.
Final Prediction
Lille's robust home form and superior defensive record provide them with a significant advantage in this fixture. Metz, plagued by defensive vulnerabilities and a lack of attacking prowess, will need a monumental effort to overcome their current predicament. A key factor to watch will be Lille's ability to exploit Metz's defensive lapses, potentially leading to a high-scoring encounter.