Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lille vs Paris FC Prediction
Lille
Home Team
89%
VS
Paris FC
Away Team
5%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5:
60%
Under 2.5:
40%
Goal:
56%
No Goal:
44%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Marseille | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Lens | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 25 |
| 4 | Strasbourg | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Lille | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Monaco | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Lyon | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Rennes | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Nice | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 13 | Angers | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Metz | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 11 |
| 15 | Brest | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Nantes | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Lorient | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
Recent Trends
Lille
- Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 6 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)
Paris FC
- Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Lille
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.96
# Clean Sheets:
2
Paris FC
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.23
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.02
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Lille and Paris FC heavily favors Lille, with an 89.0% probability of a home victory. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored stands at 60.0%, suggesting an attacking encounter. In the current Ligue 1 standings, Lille sits in 5th place, while Paris FC is positioned at 11th.
Match Analysis
Lille enters this match with a mixed bag of recent performances. Despite a defeat to Strasbourg and Nice in their last three games, they secured a victory against Angers at home. Lille's recent home form, coupled with their solid defense, having kept two clean sheets in the last five matches, boosts their confidence. Their average of 2.0 goals scored per game in the last five matches, alongside a lower average of 0.8 goals conceded, demonstrates their capability to control games effectively.
Paris FC, on the other hand, has shown resilience with a win against Monaco and a thrilling draw against Lyon, though they suffered a narrow loss to Rennes. Their defensive frailties are evident, with an average of 1.8 goals conceded per game in their last five outings. Yet, their attacking prowess cannot be overlooked, as they managed to score three goals against Lyon. The advanced metrics show Paris FC's expected goals conceded is at 2.024, indicating potential vulnerabilities Lille could exploit.
Final Prediction
Lille's superior form and defensive solidity give them the edge in this encounter. Paris FC's inconsistent defense might struggle against Lille's attacking threats. A key factor to watch is Lille's ability to capitalize on Paris FC's defensive lapses, which could define the outcome of this match.