Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lyon vs Brest Prediction

Lyon

Home Team
79%
VS

Brest

Away Team
9%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 17 13 1 3 31 13 18 40
2 Paris SG 17 12 3 2 37 15 22 39
3 Marseille 17 10 2 5 36 17 19 32
4 Lille 17 10 2 5 33 22 11 32
5 Lyon 17 9 3 5 25 17 8 30
6 Rennes 17 8 6 3 29 24 5 30
7 Strasbourg 17 7 3 7 26 21 5 24
8 Toulouse 17 6 5 6 24 22 2 23
9 Monaco 17 7 2 8 27 30 -3 23
10 Angers 17 6 4 7 18 20 -2 22
11 Brest 17 6 4 7 23 27 -4 22
12 Lorient 17 4 7 6 20 29 -9 19
13 Le Havre 17 4 6 7 15 23 -8 18
14 Nice 17 5 3 9 20 30 -10 18
15 Paris FC 17 4 4 9 22 31 -9 16
16 Nantes 17 3 5 9 16 28 -12 14
17 Auxerre 17 3 3 11 14 27 -13 12
18 Metz 17 3 3 11 18 38 -20 12

Recent Trends

Lyon ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)

Brest ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lyon

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.69
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.14
# Clean Sheets: 3

Brest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.90
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.60
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Ligue 1 clash between Lyon and Brest is predicted to swing in favor of the home team, with a 79% probability of a Lyon victory. The likelihood of the match seeing over 2.5 goals is pegged at 50%, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair. Lyon currently sits in 5th place with 30 points, while Brest is positioned 11th with 22 points in the league standings.

Match Analysis

In recent performances, Lyon has shown a mixed bag of results with two wins and one loss. They secured a convincing 3-1 victory against Monaco away and a narrow 1-0 win over Le Havre at home, while suffering a defeat to Lorient. With an average of 1.8 goals scored per match in their last five outings, Lyon's attacking prowess is evident. Defensively, they have managed three clean sheets, showcasing their ability to shut down opposing offenses. Brest, on the other hand, has also been competitive, winning two out of their last three matches. They achieved a strong 2-0 win against Auxerre and a 1-0 victory over Monaco, both on home turf, but stumbled with a 3-1 loss to Rennes away. Despite their efforts, Brest's defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match in their last five games. Their expected goals metrics suggest some vulnerability, with 0.904 goals scored and 1.596 conceded on average.

Final Prediction

Lyon appears to have the upper hand in this matchup, driven by their solid home form and the ability to both score and keep clean sheets. The key factor to watch will be their attacking efficiency, as they aim to capitalize on Brest's defensive frailties. With a stronger squad and superior defensive record, Lyon is likely to assert their dominance in this encounter.