Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lyon vs Le Havre Prediction
Lyon
Home Team
90%
VS
Le Havre
Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5:
46%
Under 2.5:
54%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lens | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 34 |
| 2 | Paris SG | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 33 |
| 3 | Marseille | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 29 |
| 4 | Lille | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 29 |
| 5 | Lyon | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 24 |
| 6 | Rennes | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Monaco | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 23 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 | Brest | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Angers | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 19 |
| 12 | Nice | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | Lorient | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 17 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 15 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 12 |
| 17 | Nantes | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 | Metz | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 11 |
Recent Trends
Lyon
- Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 0)
Le Havre
- Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Lyon
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.53
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.99
# Clean Sheets:
3
Le Havre
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.93
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.07
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
Lyon is strongly favored to secure a victory against Le Havre with a commanding 90% probability. The likelihood of an away win for Le Havre stands at just 4%, while a draw has a 6% chance. The predicted result leans towards a low-scoring encounter, with a 46% probability of under 2.5 goals. Lyon currently sits in 5th place in Ligue 1, whereas Le Havre is positioned at 15th, close to the relegation zone.
Match Analysis
Lyon's recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with a win, a draw, and a loss in their last three outings. They defeated Nantes convincingly at home with a 3-0 scoreline, showcasing their potential to perform well at home. However, their away performances have been less impressive, suffering a narrow 1-0 loss to Lorient and a goalless draw against Auxerre. This inconsistency might affect their confidence, yet their ability to maintain clean sheets in three of their last five matches is a positive sign.
On the other hand, Le Havre has struggled to find the back of the net, failing to score in their last three matches. They faced a tough schedule, drawing 0-0 against Paris FC and losing to stronger opponents like Lille and Paris SG, conceding four goals in those two losses. The advanced metrics underscore Le Havre's offensive struggles, with a mere 0.6 average goals scored in their last five games and an alarming average of 1.8 goals conceded. Defensively, they have managed two clean sheets but still face challenges when up against high-powered offenses like Lyon's.
Final Prediction
Lyon's strong home form and superior league standing give them a significant edge over Le Havre. Their ability to keep clean sheets and a more reliable goal-scoring record could prove decisive. A key factor to watch during the match will be Lyon's ability to capitalize on their home advantage and maintain defensive solidity, which could frustrate a Le Havre side that has been struggling to score.