Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lyon vs Lille Prediction - 1 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Lyon

Home Team
67%
VS

Lille

Away Team
15%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 19 14 3 2 41 15 26 45
2 Lens 19 14 1 4 33 16 17 43
3 Marseille 19 12 2 5 44 20 24 38
4 Lyon 19 11 3 5 32 20 12 36
5 Lille 19 10 2 7 34 29 5 32
6 Rennes 19 8 7 4 30 27 3 31
7 Strasbourg 19 9 3 7 32 23 9 30
8 Toulouse 19 8 5 6 31 23 8 29
9 Lorient 19 6 7 6 25 30 -5 25
10 Monaco 19 7 3 9 28 33 -5 24
11 Angers 19 6 5 8 20 25 -5 23
12 Brest 19 6 4 9 24 31 -7 22
13 Nice 19 6 3 10 25 36 -11 21
14 Paris FC 19 5 5 9 24 32 -8 20
15 Le Havre 19 4 8 7 16 24 -8 20
16 Nantes 19 3 5 11 18 34 -16 14
17 Auxerre 19 3 3 13 14 29 -15 12
18 Metz 19 3 3 13 21 45 -24 12

Recent Trends

Lyon W W W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 1)

Lille L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lyon

xG (avg) 1.93
xGA (avg) 1.10
Clean Sheets 1

Lille

xG (avg) 0.78
xGA (avg) 1.44
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Based on the current analysis, Lyon is predicted to win against Lille with a 67.0% probability. The likelihood of the game seeing over 2.5 goals is 56.0%. Lyon is currently in 4th place in Ligue 1, while Lille sits in 5th position, indicating a close contest but with Lyon having the upper hand.

Match Analysis

Lyon comes into this match riding a wave of momentum, having won their last three games. Their recent performances include a dominant 5-2 victory against Metz, a solid 2-1 home win over Brest, and a convincing 3-1 triumph away at Monaco. These results highlight Lyon's attacking prowess, as they have consistently found the back of the net. The team's recent form is reflected in their average of 2.0 goals scored per game over their last five matches, coupled with a relatively solid defense that concedes an average of just 1.0 goal per game. In stark contrast, Lille has struggled recently, losing their last three matches. They suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat at home to Strasbourg, were outplayed by Paris SG in a 3-0 away loss, and fell 2-0 at home to Rennes. These results suggest a concerning trend for Lille, with their defense leaking an average of 2.0 goals per game in their last five outings. Offensively, Lille has also been underwhelming, scoring an average of just 1.0 goal per game and having a lower expected goals metric of 0.78.

Final Prediction

Lyon's recent form and offensive capabilities give them a significant edge in this matchup against a struggling Lille side. Their ability to consistently score and maintain a tighter defense should prove decisive. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Lyon can capitalize on Lille's defensive vulnerabilities, potentially leading to a high-scoring encounter.

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