Ligue 1 2026-2027: Marseille vs Le Havre Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Marseille

Home Team
55%
VS

Le Havre

Away Team
21%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 27.8
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Marseille

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Marseille
Attack +4.0 Marseille
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.2 Marseille
Defense +2.2 Marseille

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 72% for Marseille. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Marseille attack & chance creation +4.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Le Havre attack & chance creation +1.8 Over
Marseille defense +1.8 Over
Le Havre defense +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lyon 7 4 2 1 13 5 8 14
2 Paris SG 7 4 2 1 14 9 5 14
3 Paris FC 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
4 Lille 7 4 2 1 10 5 5 14
5 Monaco 7 4 2 1 10 6 4 14
6 Rennes 7 4 1 2 15 14 1 13
7 Lorient 7 3 2 2 7 6 1 11
8 Lens 7 3 1 3 14 11 3 10
9 Marseille 7 3 0 4 14 10 4 9
10 Brest 7 2 3 2 13 10 3 9
11 Toulouse 7 2 3 2 12 11 1 9
12 Auxerre 7 3 0 4 11 17 -6 9
13 Nice 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
14 Strasbourg 7 2 1 4 12 15 -3 7
15 Angers 7 2 1 4 9 15 -6 7
16 Le Mans 7 1 3 3 10 15 -5 6
17 Troyes 7 1 1 5 5 16 -11 4
18 Le Havre 7 0 2 5 5 11 -6 2

Recent Trends

Marseille W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)

Le Havre L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

xG (avg) 1.98
xGA (avg) 2.75
Clean Sheets 1

Le Havre

xG (avg) 1.37
xGA (avg) 2.15
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are the likeliest winners at 55%, with a draw at 24% and a Le Havre win at 21%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, with a 61% probability.

Match Analysis

Marseille’s home advantage is the clearest separator, alongside a stronger attack. They have scored 14 goals in seven league games, and arrive after two wins: 2-0 at Troyes and 5-2 at Angers, following a 1-2 loss to Paris SG. That recent run gives their forward play momentum, though the latest victory also came in a game where they conceded twice. Le Havre have lost three in a row, from 2-3 at Toulouse to 0-1 at Lille and, most recently, 1-3 against Auxerre. Their defence has conceded 11 goals in seven league matches. Marseille have conceded 1.7 goals per home game despite allowing 2.7 expected goals, a sign that their recent home defending has been more vulnerable than the scorelines suggest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61%. Marseille’s attack and chance creation are the strongest reasons for that call, while their recent home defensive numbers leave room for Le Havre to contribute.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.0 corners. Le Havre’s last three matches produced 11, 9 and 13 corners, pointing to a steady supply of set-piece opportunities.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 28 shots. Marseille had 21 shots at Angers, while Le Havre and Auxerre recorded 15 and 13 respectively in their latest match.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Marseille wins by X goals. Negative = Le Havre wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Marseille vs Le Havre with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Marseille vs Le Havre
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.8 of a goal in Marseille’s favour. That fits the home side’s higher win probability, while leaving room for a close contest.

Final Prediction

Le Havre’s route to upsetting the forecast is to turn their away chances into goals. They have averaged 1.4 expected goals away from home but scored only 1.0, so sharper finishing could expose Marseille’s home defensive vulnerability.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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