Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Lyon Prediction - 1 Mar 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots
Marseille
Home Team
55%
VS
Lyon
Away Team
24%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5:
52%
Under 2.5:
48%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Expected Corners:
9.4
Expected Shots:
23.6
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 19 | 33 | 54 |
| 2 | Lens | 23 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 52 |
| 3 | Lyon | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 23 | 14 | 45 |
| 4 | Marseille | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 40 |
| 5 | Lille | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 31 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Rennes | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 37 | 35 | 2 | 37 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 34 |
| 8 | Monaco | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 36 | 2 | 34 |
| 9 | Lorient | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 31 |
| 11 | Brest | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 30 |
| 12 | Angers | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 29 |
| 13 | Le Havre | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Nice | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 24 |
| 15 | Paris FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 23 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 17 |
| 17 | Nantes | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 23 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 52 | -30 | 13 |
Recent Trends
Marseille
- Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 5)
- 4th Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 1)
Lyon
- Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 5 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Marseille
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.92
# Clean Sheets:
0
Lyon
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.50
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
Marseille are favoured to take all three points at the Vélodrome, with a 55.0% probability of a home win against Lyon’s 24.0% chance of victory, making OM the clear statistical pick despite sitting 4th (40 points) and chasing 3rd‑placed Lyon (45 points) in the Ligue 1 table. The over 2.5 prediction leans towards goals, with a 52.0% probability of at least three being scored in a match where both sides have shown recent defensive vulnerability. A goal for both teams is also slightly favoured at 52.0%.
Match Analysis
Marseille come into this Olympico under pressure, with just one point from their last three league games. A 2-2 home draw with Strasbourg was sandwiched between heavy away defeats at Brest (0-2) and Paris SG (0-5), underlining how fragile OM can look when the game opens up. Across those fixtures they were outscored 7-2, and even at home they allowed Strasbourg 12 shots and five corners, suggesting a side that still gives opponents chances even when on the front foot.
Lyon arrive in better immediate form, having won two of their last three. Tight victories over Nantes (1-0 away) and Nice (2-0 at home) were followed by a 3-1 loss at Strasbourg, which checked their momentum but didn’t erase the impression of a side that has become harder to beat. Over the last five matches, Lyon have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded with three clean sheets, backed by 1.44 expected goals (xG) for and 1.5 xG against per game – numbers that portray a balanced, slightly efficient team. Marseille’s recent metrics point the other way: 1.6 goals scored but 1.4 conceded per game, with 1.496 xG for and a worrying 1.92 xG against, plus no clean sheets in five. At home they still carry attacking threat, but Lyon’s more solid recent structure and OM’s defensive leaks shape this as a game where the hosts may need their firepower to compensate.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction
Recent Goals Trends
Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5
Marseille
Lyon
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 52.0% probability, and there is enough evidence on both sides to support that. Two of Marseille’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Strasbourg, 0-5 at Paris SG), with only the 0-2 at Brest coming under. For Lyon, two of their last three have stayed under 2.5 (1-0 at Nantes, 2-0 vs Nice), but the 3-1 defeat at Strasbourg showed how quickly their matches can open up. With OM averaging 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Lyon at 2.0 for and 1.4 against, backed by relatively high xG figures on both sides, the balance tilts just towards goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.
Corners Prediction
Recent Corners Trends
Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.
Marseille
Lyon
Corners Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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The corners prediction points to a moderately busy night from the flags, with an expected total of 9.36 corners. Marseille’s last three matches have produced 4, 10 and 7 corners respectively, while Lyon’s have seen 6, 13 and 9 – both teams hovering around that 8–11 range typical of sides who attack in spells but don’t play end‑to‑end basketball. OM’s willingness to shoot from wide areas (17 attempts at Brest, 10 vs Strasbourg) and Lyon’s ability to win corners at home to Nice (8-5) suggest the predicted corners figure is consistent with two teams that like to push their full-backs on rather than sit deep.
Shots Prediction
Recent Shots Trends
Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.
Marseille
Lyon
Shots Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.63, which fits neatly with what both teams have produced in recent weeks. Marseille’s last three outings have seen combined shot counts of 29 (Brest), 22 (Strasbourg) and 31 (Paris SG), while Lyon’s have recorded 23 (Strasbourg), 19 (Nice) and 23 (Nantes). That volume aligns with the attacking xG profiles: OM at 1.496 xG and Lyon at 1.44 xG per game usually need a steady stream of attempts to reach those numbers, making this shots prediction realistic for a match where both sides are expected to threaten.
Final Prediction
Marseille’s home advantage, combined with their stronger attacking output and slightly higher offensive xG, gives them the edge over a Lyon side that has improved defensively but still concedes chances. Lyon’s recent clean sheets show they can frustrate, yet OM’s need to close the five‑point gap to 3rd is likely to drive an aggressive approach. The key factor to watch will be how Marseille’s vulnerable back line copes with Lyon’s efficient attack; if the hosts can limit high‑quality chances against, their superior firepower should decide the Olympico.
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