Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Monaco Prediction

Marseille

Home Team
83%
VS

Monaco

Away Team
8%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 15 11 1 3 26 13 13 34
2 Paris SG 15 10 3 2 32 12 20 33
3 Marseille 15 9 2 4 35 15 20 29
4 Lille 15 9 2 4 29 17 12 29
5 Lyon 15 7 3 5 21 16 5 24
6 Rennes 15 6 6 3 24 23 1 24
7 Monaco 15 7 2 6 26 26 0 23
8 Strasbourg 15 7 1 7 25 20 5 22
9 Toulouse 15 5 5 5 21 19 2 20
10 Brest 15 5 4 6 20 24 -4 19
11 Angers 15 5 4 6 13 17 -4 19
12 Nice 15 5 2 8 19 27 -8 17
13 Lorient 15 4 5 6 19 28 -9 17
14 Paris FC 15 4 4 7 21 26 -5 16
15 Le Havre 15 3 6 6 13 21 -8 15
16 Auxerre 15 3 3 9 11 21 -10 12
17 Nantes 15 2 5 8 13 24 -11 11
18 Metz 15 3 2 10 15 34 -19 11

Recent Trends

Marseille ❌ ⚪ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)

Monaco ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.81
# Clean Sheets: 2

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.00
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille is predicted to win their upcoming match against Monaco with a high probability of 83.0%. This match is anticipated to have over 2.5 goals scored, reflecting a 55.0% probability for such an outcome. Currently, Marseille sits in 3rd place in Ligue 1, whereas Monaco holds the 7th position in the league standings.

Match Analysis

In their recent performances, Marseille has shown a mixed bag of results. They suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat to Lille and managed a 2-2 draw against Toulouse. However, they bounced back significantly with a commanding 5-1 victory over Nice. This indicates a strong offensive capability, particularly in their last match. Their advanced metrics further support this, with Marseille averaging 2.8 goals scored per game over the last five matches and maintaining a solid defensive line by conceding an average of just 1.2 goals. On the other hand, Monaco has had a more turbulent run, with two losses in their last three matches. They lost 0-1 to Brest and suffered a heavy 1-4 defeat against Rennes, although they did secure an impressive 1-0 win against Paris SG. Monaco's defense has been a weak spot, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game recently. Their offensive output, while not as prolific as Marseille's, still stands at an average of 1.6 goals per game, suggesting they can be a threat if given opportunities.

Final Prediction

Marseille has a clear edge going into this match, largely due to their recent commanding win and overall stronger performance metrics. Their ability to score effectively and maintain defensive solidity gives them the upper hand. A key factor to watch will be Marseille's offensive strategies, as they have been potent in recent games and could exploit Monaco's defensive vulnerabilities.