Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Nantes Prediction
Marseille
Home Team
99%
VS
Nantes
Away Team
0%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5:
61%
Under 2.5:
39%
Goal:
49%
No Goal:
51%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lens | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 37 |
| 2 | Paris SG | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 36 |
| 3 | Marseille | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 15 | 21 | 32 |
| 4 | Lille | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 32 |
| 5 | Lyon | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 27 |
| 6 | Rennes | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 27 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 23 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 23 |
| 9 | Monaco | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 |
| 10 | Angers | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 22 |
| 11 | Brest | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 19 |
| 12 | Lorient | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 18 |
| 13 | Nice | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 17 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Nantes | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 28 | -14 | 11 |
| 18 | Metz | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 11 |
Recent Trends
Marseille
- Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 5 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)
Nantes
- Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Marseille
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.51
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.02
# Clean Sheets:
2
Nantes
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.72
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Marseille and Nantes is heavily tilted in favor of the home team. With an overwhelming 99.0% probability of Marseille clinching the win, they are poised for a commanding performance. The match is also anticipated to deliver over 2.5 goals, with a 61.0% probability. Currently sitting third in Ligue 1, Marseille is in a strong position, unlike Nantes, who are languishing in 17th place and battling relegation.
Match Analysis
Marseille has shown a mixed bag of performances in their last three outings, with a win against Monaco, a loss to Lille, and a draw with Toulouse. They have been relatively consistent in scoring, averaging 2.8 goals per game in their last five matches. Their defense has been fairly solid as well, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game. The team has managed to keep two clean sheets during this period, indicating a balanced approach on both ends of the pitch.
On the other hand, Nantes has been struggling, losing all their last three matches against Angers, Lens, and Lyon. Scoring has been a significant issue for Nantes, as they have only managed to find the net 0.8 times per game while conceding an average of 1.8 goals. Their expected goals metric further underscores the challenge, with only 0.482 expected goals against a much higher expected concession rate. The lack of clean sheets in their recent performances highlights their defensive vulnerabilities.
Final Prediction
Marseille's superior form and attacking prowess provide them a decisive edge over Nantes. Their ability to score consistently, coupled with a comparatively stronger defense, makes them favorites in this encounter. A key factor to watch will be Marseille's offensive execution, as they look to capitalize on Nantes' defensive struggles and maintain their push for a top-three finish in the league.